Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Happy Birthday Laura!!

Today is too perfect for griping!!

Just a special Happy Birthday message to my wonderful wife...



Happy Birthday Laura!!  

I hope you have a great day!!

Monday, December 7, 2009

Poll #1 - 1985 Bears...best ever by the numbers

I feel as though I have come up with a fairly simple methodology for figuring out the best team in NFL history.  My hope is that it does not come off as too complicated.  The basic premise is to pick a handful of NFL team statistics, average the statistics to a percentage, and average those percentages to one overall power value.

Here are the 5 quantitative factors I used to determine the best team in NFL history, with the 1985 Bears used as the primary example.

1.  Wins from Average
- number of games played per team divided by two -
Example: 15(Bears total wins) - 8(average NFL team wins)= 7

2.  Turnover Differential 
- takeaways minus giveaways -
Example: +23

3.  Offensive Yards Per Game from Average
- team average offensive yards per game minus average NFL team yards per game -
Example:  365 (Bears average yards per game) - 329 (NFL average team) = 35

4.  Defensive Yards Per Game from Average -
- team average defensive yards per game minus average NFL team yards per game -
Example: 329 (NFL average team) - 258 (Bears average yards per game) = 71

5.  Average Margin of Victory
- number of points scored minus number points allowed divided by number of games -
Example: 456 (points scored) - 198 (points allowed) / 16 (games played) = 16.13

After I inputted all of the data from the SuperBowl winners and losers for these 5 factors, I realize that each factor did not carry an equal weight.  Each factor was given a 100% maximum possibility based on historic data.  Each team was then given a percentage based on that maximum possibility:

Maximums (1985 Bears %)
1.  Wins from Average - 8 (7/8=88%)
2.  Turnover Differential - 30 (23/30=77%)
3.  Offensive Yards Per Game from Average- 100 (35/100=35%)
4.  Defensive Yards per Game from Average - 100 (71/100=71%)
5.  Average Margin of Victory - 20 (16.13/20=81%)

The average of these five percentages represent a team's Power Quotient:

1. 1985 Bears - 70.24% = ( 88+77+35+71+81 / 5 )
2.  1972 Dolphins - 69.63%
3.  1983 Redskins - 67.66%*
4.  2007 Patriots - 64.22%*
5.  1991 Redskins - 61.41%
*did not win SuperBowl 

See the results file to view the Power Quotients' for all of the past SuperBowl Winners and Losers.
The full data/results file will be located in the Documents Box^ (right side of blog). 
^I will be updating this file periodically with results and data for every NFL team by year.