The Dylan Bundy Situation

Let me start off by saying I'm no expert on the topic of baseball prospect development. I'm just going to throw my two cents out there and see if anybody agrees with me since this topic has been hotly debated recently.

@CamdenDepot (Jon Shepard) and @masnSteve (Steve Melewski) have had quite a little twitter war today about how to handle Dylan Bundy's development and his non-existent promotion from Delmarva to Frederick.

I'm not entirely sure that the viewpoint Steve is broadcasting is truly his own. I think it's more a reflection of what Orioles management is feeding him. This is understandable considering his job is to be a newspaper/beat/fact reporter for MASN that follows the Orioles. The best way for him to get access to the Orioles players and management is to keep them happy by writing exactly what they tell him (and leaving out his opinions as much as possible).  Regardless, he has to be accountable for his words, whether they are his or those of Orioles management.

Jon, on the other hand, has been voicing an educated opinion on the Bundy situation that is based on his past and current prospect development research and general knowledge of baseball. If you have ever read his minor league prospects posts on CamdenDepot, then you probably know his knowledge on this topic is supported by research and is well-respected in the baseball community.  

My best attempt at transcribing the twitter war/conversation (order may be a little off):

Steve: "Lost in fan hysteria about possible Bundy promotion, they like him working on his changeup at a level where he can do that & have success."

Jon: "and somehow Frederick is way too hard for using his changeup? Not based on the reports I have been given."

Steve: "He can it develop better in a 6-man with two side sessions with a pitching coach he is clicking with."

Jon: "no rush, but absurd to think he cannot develop a change above Delmarva. Bad argument."

Steve: "Sure Bundy can get Carolina Lg hitters out now. Not the point. They are teaching him a changeup to get AL hitters out someday."

Jon: "you do not have to be in Frederick, but it is NOT keeping him from Frederick. That is the point."

Steve: "I know we are hearing from the same "critics" now on Bundy that are now saying Matusz was rushed. But hey, let's make that mistake again."

Steve: "The extra side session and less advanced hitters to do it against. Improve that pitch, then move up."

Jon: "pitch already plays and your other arguments (learning to be a pro) sounds more glad handy and a bit contradictory."

My two cents:

There were other tweets mixed in at the end that deal with name calling and such, but they are not important to the discussion at hand.  I think there are positives on both sides of the argument.  There really is no need to rush Bundy right now (Steve's point), but Bundy's opponents in Sally League can't even touch his pitches (Jon's point).  So what's the solution?  It's not my call but I think the Orioles should... 

Move Dylan Bundy to Frederick (Carolina League) now. 

• When you really think about it, Frederick and Delmarva are not that different from a travel and life-style standpoint, so the "learning to be a pro" argument can be thrown out.  He'll still ride buses, and pitch every 5th or 6th day in lackluster A-ball environments/stadiums. 

• Based on what I have read in the past, Bundy's opponents in Frederick will not be so much better than in Delmarva that he can't work on his changeup.  My hope would be that maybe the Carolina League players could at least get a few hits and allow Bundy to work on all aspects of his game.  Aspects of his game that he hasn't and probably won't ever be able to use in Delmarva include holding runners, pick-off moves, higher pitch counts (per inning or entire game), fielding bunts, situational pitching (RISP), etc. 

Those are my two cents (literally).  I'm no authority on this matter, but I think Jon has presented a valid case for Dylan Bundy to move to Frederick, and as you can see, I agree with his viewpoints.

Reimold Leaderboard Status

If Reimold had had 4 more plate appearances as of today^, he would qualify for the MLB batting leader-boards...

He would be 2nd* in the American League and 4th in Major League Baseball in Slugging Percentage (.783) and OPS (1.166).

End of Discussion**: Reimold should be starting every game for the Orioles in some capacity.  But he probably shouldn't be batting lead-off. I prefer to see him in the 2nd, 5th, or 6th spot, since those spots usually result in more at-bats with runners in scoring position. 

^Neck Spasms have forced him to miss 3 of the last 4 games.
*behind only Josh Hamilton
**I realize these are small samples and he is unlikely to continue at this rate, but the potential for production is apparent and undeniable.

Orioles Lead-Off Hitter: Nick Markakis

My last post detailed the problems with the traditional idea of a lead-off hitter.  I reserved my opinion on who I thought should be the Orioles' lead-off until now so I would have some 2012 data* to back up my claims.

*The Orioles have only played 14 games as of today, so this sample is probably a little small.  100 plate appearances is preferable, but data from 2011 can be used to validate any small sample size issues. I'll try to revisit after the Orioles have played 25 and 50 games.

My opinion is that the lead-off hitter should be the team's most proficient player at getting on-base.  In statistical terms, that would be the player with the highest on-base percentage (OBP).  For my selection of the Orioles lead-off hitter, I will use prior year data** for justification.

**Current year could, and probably should be used after 25 games.

Without any further ado, I give you my pick for the Orioles' everyday lead-off hitter: Nick Markakis.  Probably not much of a shocker to those of you that follow the Orioles on a daily basis.  It just makes visual (actually watching the games) and statistical (not just AVG, HRs, and RBIs) sense...

Visual: For all of 2011 and most of 2012, Markakis has made a habit of lacing singles to left field when pitched away.  He does this without regard for the current game situation.  It doesn't matter if the bases are empty in the 1st inning or if there is a man on first with two outs in the 9th inning and the Orioles are down by one, Markakis will try to slap the outside pitch to left field for a single.  The opposing pitchers know he does this and will continue to pitch him on the outside corner to avoid having Markakis get an extra-base hit.  So what does all of that mean?  It means that Markakis should not be batting 3rd in the Orioles lineup.  The 3rd spot is generally reserved for the team's most productive player at creating runs (wRC+), which is not Markakis on the Orioles.  Enough of my opinions, here are the numbers:

	2011			2012*
Typical Lineup	OBP	wOBA	wRC+	OBP	wOBA	wRC+
Reimold	.328	.341	112	.383	.500	217
Hardy	.310	.343	113	.283	.288	76
Markakis	.351	.334	107	.323	.317	95
Jones	.319	.339	110	.333	.416	161
Wieters	.328	.339	110	.380	.412	159
Betemit	.343	.340	112	.171	.218	29
Reynolds	.323	.348	116	.286	.241	45
Davis	.305	.309	89	.348	.371	131
Andino	.327	.305	87	.321	.325	100

*As of April 21st

Markakis was clearly the Orioles most proficient player at getting on-base in 2011, but his 2011 wOBA and wRC+ would be in the bottom 3rd of the Orioles 2012 typical lineup.  A high OBP player that has a low wOBA and WRC+ should not be hitting in the 3rd spot.  Markakis was average (at best) at producing runs in 2011 (wRC+ of 107) and the trend is continuing in 2012 (wRC+ of 95).  The Orioles need to accept the fact that Markakis is not a run producer.

The best way to use Markakis is to put him in the lead-off spot and maximum his talent for getting on-base (since a lead-off hitters primary job is to get on-base).  His OBP is down a little in 2012, but 14 games is a small sample, so I will not judge him yet.  It's likely he'll have the top OBP on the Orioles by the end of the year.

Memo to the Orioles Management: Force Buck to put Markakis in the lead-off spot and get over the fact that you gave Markakis too much money.  It's time to make the best of an expensive contract. Speaking of bad contracts, please release Kevin Gregg while you are at it.

Added Discussion:
See below for my proposed 2012 Orioles lineup.  Let me know what you think.  I don't think there is one right answer for the Orioles lineup (except that Markakis should be leading off in all of them).

Based on 2011 end of year statistics (and the 14 games in 2012), this is the starting lineup I would like to see in 90% of the Orioles games...

Markakis

Jones

Hardy

Wieters

Reimold

Davis

Reynolds

Betemit

Andino

Batting Order Discussion: Leadoff Hitter

What makes a MLB player a "great" leadoff hitter?  I use quotations around the word "great" because there are varing opinions out there as to what a leadoff hitter should be.  Listed below are statements that I typically hear from casual baseball fans when they talk about the qualities of a "great" leadoff hitter:

• Leadoff hitter must be fast.
• Leadoff hitter is not a power hitter.
• Leadoff hitter has a high batting average.

I bring this topic up because the Orioles have an ongoing leadoff hitter debate...since Brian Roberts is probably going to be MIA for awhile.  Multiple opinions exist out there in the blog world about who the Orioles opening day leadoff hitter should be in 2012 and I would like to have my opinion documented as well (with statistical justification).  In my next post, I will share my opinion on the subject, but today, I want to attempt to debunk the three "great" leadoff hitter statements I mentioned above...

Leadoff hitter must be fast.

In my opinion, must be fast is the weakest reason one could have for wanting a player in the leadoff spot.  I'll concede that it is important for a leadoff to have some speed, but I don't believe that they need to be fast or have elite speed to help the team win.  Granted, it's never good to have a really fast player bat behind a really slow player.  But then again, there's only 90 feet between bases, so the chances of the fast player catching the slow player are pretty slim if you consider all factors.  One can actually quantify the speed of an individual player with a stopwatch, but that metric does not measure the player's ability to help the team win.  Ultimately, I feel as though the "must be fast to be a leadoff hitter" statement should be ignored because it is not speed alone that gets a player on-base, it's a combination of many things; hits and walks are the first things that come to mind.

Leadoff hitter is not a power hitter.

This one is very easy debunk.  I give you the names, home run totals, and stolen base totals of leadoff hitters for three playoff-caliber MLB teams in 2011...

Jacoby Ellsbury: 32 HRs, 39 SBs
Jimmy Rollins:  16 HRs, 30 SBs
Ian Kinsler:  32 HRs, 30 SBs

I know it's hard for some fans to process this, but it's okay for a leadoff hitter to have power.  All three of these players excel at getting on-base, stealing bases, and creating runs.  Just because they have power doesn't mean they shouldn't be the leadoff hitter - I see it was a bonus.  They play for three high-quality teams that consistently win games, so "wasting those home runs" (as people tend to say) in the leadoff spot does not seem to be hurting those teams in the most important column: the win column.

Leadoff hitter has a high batting average.

This one is a little tricky.  The best leadoff hitters in MLB usually have a high batting average (AVG), but in my opinion, the player's on-base percentage (OBP) and wOBA is the more releveant statistic.  I'm not saying a leadoff hitter shouldn't or can't have a high batting average.  I'm just saying that OBP and wOBA are better predictors of whether a player will be more beneficial to their team in the leadoff spot.  Which of these two players is the better leadoff hitter in your mind?

Player A: .255 AVG in 2011
Player B:  .297 AVG in 2011

If AVG was the only information you were given, you would have to pick Player B.  No brainer.  And this is why I have a problem with fans stating that a leadoff hitter should have a high batting average.  Batting average only tells one part of the story and fans need to start looking beyond that limited statistic if they want to truly understand the modern game of baseball.  Player A is Derek Jeter.  Player B is Ian Kinsler.  Both ended 2011 with a .355 OBP, so in my opinion, they are both performing the job (getting on-base) of a leadoff hitter at the same level.  The wOBA statistis takes the numbers to a new level and measures a hitter's total offensive value.  See FanGraphs for the real and detailed explanation of wOBA.  Kinsler had a wOBA of .370 and Jeter a .332 wOBA.  It is clear that Kinsler was a more productive and efficient leadoff hitter despite his .255 AVG.  I envision a future where televised baseball games no longer display or speak of batting average.  Probably never going to happen in my lifetime.

In my next post, I will divulge and justify my pick for the Orioles opening day leadoff hitter...

Any guesses?

For any Wizards fans viewing this page...go check out my good friend's new blog (he's more consistent with posting than me) ... Live From the Phone Booth

#bullets

At some point in the middle of the Wizard's debacle last night, I came to the conclusion/realization that I'm done with the #wizards twitter hashtag and the "Wizards" name.  I started using the #bullets hashtag for all of my tweets.  I see the #bullets hashtag as an opportunity/starting point for a movement to bring back the Bullets name.  I say screw the Wizards name and everything it tried to stand for*.

*The name change attempted to distance the franchise from the gun violence that existed in DC during the 1980's.  People, governments, and politics can decrease crime rates, not a professional basketball team's name change.

After this post, I will no longer use the name Wizards to describe the NBA franchise in Washington, D.C.  I ask you to join me in this quest to eliminate the Wizards name from the internet stratosphere.  One way or another, the Bullets name will reappear...

I implore all Wizards Bullets fans to use the #bullets hash tag for all related posts, tweets, and opinions about the NBA's Washington D.C. franchise. 

Justification isn't really necessary since Irene Pollin has already given her blessing for the switch back to the Bullets name...

“I respect my husband’s wishes. I love him very much. I miss him terribly. If the fans want to change it back — hey, why not?” Irene Pollin said recently. “To me, it’s what do the fans want? What’s going to please them? To me, they’re the ones who support, care.”

I know what this true DC basketball fan wants and I'm pretty sure the majority of the legit DC basketball fans agree with me.  And it's quite simple, get rid of the awful Wizards name and bring back the only correct name for a DC basketball franchise...

Bullets Bullets Bullets

I found Leonsis' response to Irene Pollin's comments lackluster and similar to that of a DC politician...

“The Wizards organization, our fans, our players and our alumni remain extremely excited about the return to red, white and blue and the introduction of our new team marks. Our focus is a commitment to celebrating that change with our fans”. 

He is definitely avoiding the real issue with those words. Changing the team colors back to red, white, and blue is nice but it seems like a half-baked attempt to sell tickets and please the die-hard DC fans. You want to make some real change and get people back into the Verizon Center, then undo a name change that should have never happened.

#bullets