Starting Rotations (IP/GS): 2011 vs 2012 Orioles

Through 37 games of the season, it appears that the Orioles' starting rotation is substantially better than the 2011 version.  How much better? I'm not totally sure, but there is one pitching metric where improvement is undeniable: IP/GS (innings pitched per start)

2012 Orioles Starting Pitchers	GS	IP	IP/GS
Jason Hammel	7	43.2	6.2
Wei-Yin Chen	7	44.0	6.3
Jake Arrieta	8	48.1	6.0
Brian Matusz	7	37.2	5.3
Tommy Hunter	7	42.0	6.0
Dana Eveland	1	6.0	6.0
2012 Orioles Rotation (current totals)	37	220.5	6.0
2012 Orioles Rotation (projected totals*)	162	965.4	6.0
2011 Top 5** AL Rotations (based on R/G)	162	1014.1	6.3
2011 Orioles Starting Rotation	162	874.8	5.4

*Projected based on the premise that the production level from the first 37 games is maintained for the entire season.
**Rays, Angels, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers had the Top 5 starting rotations based on runs scored against per game.  4 of those 5 made the playoffs.

The starting rotation of the 2011 Orioles was not good in the IP/GS category:

• In 2011, the Top 5 rotations in the AL managed to record an average of 19 outs per start (6 innings, one out).

• In 2011, the Orioles starting rotation managed to record an average of 16 outs per start (5 innings, one out)
• an entire inning less than the contenders 
• 140 more innings thrown by the Orioles bullpen than the bullpens of the Top 5 starting rotations (average)
•  the equivalent of 15 complete games

The starting rotation of the 2012 Orioles has been slightly above average in the IP/GS category:

•  The Top 5 rotations in the AL have managed to record an average of 19 outs per start (6 innings, one out).
• The Orioles' starting rotation through 37 games in 2012 is averaging 18 outs per start (6 innings).
• 2/3 of an inning more per game than in 2011.
• 90 less innings thrown by the bullpen than in 2011.
• the equivalent of  10 complete games

This is a great reason for Orioles' fans to remain optimistic about the rest of the season.  If the Orioles' starting pitchers continue to average 6 innings per start*, the bullpen will have to be relied on less than in previous years, thus reducing the number of innings being thrown.  Less innings for the bullpen means it is more likely they will maintain their current (best in MLB) level of production.  The formula for continued success by the Orioles is quite simple: starters pitch deeper into games and bullpen wear & tear, and exposure becomes a non-issue.  Average defense and a little higher OBP by the position players wouldn't hurt either, but that's another discussion entirely.

*also going with the general assumption that the starting pitchers are allowing less runs and pitching more efficiently if they are pitching into the 7th inning.

I would have even more confidence in the Orioles' playoff hopes if the IP/GS was a little higher.  I'm hoping the return of Zach Britton will bring the rotation up to an elite level (6.1-6.2 range) in the IP/GS statistic.

Hoping for the best, expecting the worse, but this starting rotation has an opportunity to maintain respectability and could surprise the MLB community even more as the dog days of summer approach.

I'll continue to say it until it becomes untrue...

This Orioles team is different...they know how to win and expect to win every game.

Arrieta and Matusz: BABIP Concerns

There has been a lot of positive talk about Jake Arrieta's start to the 2012 season, and not so much positive talk about the beginning of Brian Matusz's season.  After last night's win against the Yankees, I was shocked to see that Matusz's ERA was down to 4.67 (respectable for the AL bEast).  And then I remembered that I saw Arrieta's ERA on the television screen after his last, and rather disappointing start: 4.45.

I found this to be a shocking considering the praise Arrieta has received so far this year, yet Matusz has been on the front end of a lot of negativity despite being nearly as productive on the mound.  Obviously, ERA is not the best judge of one's pitching ability.  I only brought up their ERA's because they lead to this question:

Are Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz producing at the same level through 5 starts* in 2012?
*small sample, yes, but still worth a look

2012 ERA WHIP QS IP HR/9 K/9 BB/9 BABIP  FIP xFIP WAR Arrieta 4.45 1.09 2 30.1 1.19 7.12 2.67 0.235 4.06 3.79  0.4 Matusz 4.67 1.70 2 27.0 1.00 6.00 4.67 0.322 4.61 5.30  0.2

The short answer is No, they have not been producing at the same level.  Arrieta has been worth 0.2 WAR more through 5 starts.  Over an entire season of starts, that would result in about a 1.0 WAR difference between them.  But WAR does not predict the future or account for "luck" (BABIP)...

The BABIP data suggests that one of these pitchers has been luckier than the other.  I'm going to make the big assumption that Matusz is back to his former 2010 self (positive thoughts people) for predictive purposes.  When Matusz was on top of his game in 2010, he sported a BABIP of .292, which is common during his successful stretches.  Matusz's BABIP in 2012 through 5 starts is .322.  I do not truly understand all of the advanced metrics and how one effects another, but let's say his luck improves and his BABIP gets down to the .290 range.  He'll likely see a drop in the other advanced pitching metrics, start pitching a little deeper into games, and have more quality starts*.

Jake Arrieta, on the other hand, has been extremely lucky with his .235 BABIP.  His career BABIP is typically in the .280 range.  If his luck takes a turn for the worse and approaches .280, his advanced metrics will not look like those of top rotational pitcher. His current level of production would not be sustainable with a higher BABIP, and he would probably have an ERA in the 5.0 range when the 2012 season is over.

I do not mean to shed gloom and doom on Jake Arrieta.  I just think the Orioles faithful needs to watch the advanced metrics closely with Arrieta and Matusz before judging them.  My bold prediction is that Brian Matusz will have better numbers and be more productive then Jake Arrieta by the end of the year.  I hope Jake proves me wrong and wins 15 games, but I think Matusz is going to surprise his doubters and win between 13 and 15 games with ERA in the 3.9-4.1 range. 

*Side Note: The Quality Start statistic is poor barometer for success in my opinion.  I like the idea of a Quality Start being at least 7 innings pitched with 3 or fewer earned runs.  I think an even better statistic would be a High Quality Start: at least 7 innings with 2 or fewer earned runs.

The Dylan Bundy Situation

Let me start off by saying I'm no expert on the topic of baseball prospect development. I'm just going to throw my two cents out there and see if anybody agrees with me since this topic has been hotly debated recently.

@CamdenDepot (Jon Shepard) and @masnSteve (Steve Melewski) have had quite a little twitter war today about how to handle Dylan Bundy's development and his non-existent promotion from Delmarva to Frederick.

I'm not entirely sure that the viewpoint Steve is broadcasting is truly his own. I think it's more a reflection of what Orioles management is feeding him. This is understandable considering his job is to be a newspaper/beat/fact reporter for MASN that follows the Orioles. The best way for him to get access to the Orioles players and management is to keep them happy by writing exactly what they tell him (and leaving out his opinions as much as possible).  Regardless, he has to be accountable for his words, whether they are his or those of Orioles management.

Jon, on the other hand, has been voicing an educated opinion on the Bundy situation that is based on his past and current prospect development research and general knowledge of baseball. If you have ever read his minor league prospects posts on CamdenDepot, then you probably know his knowledge on this topic is supported by research and is well-respected in the baseball community.  

My best attempt at transcribing the twitter war/conversation (order may be a little off):

Steve: "Lost in fan hysteria about possible Bundy promotion, they like him working on his changeup at a level where he can do that & have success."

Jon: "and somehow Frederick is way too hard for using his changeup? Not based on the reports I have been given."

Steve: "He can it develop better in a 6-man with two side sessions with a pitching coach he is clicking with."

Jon: "no rush, but absurd to think he cannot develop a change above Delmarva. Bad argument."

Steve: "Sure Bundy can get Carolina Lg hitters out now. Not the point. They are teaching him a changeup to get AL hitters out someday."

Jon: "you do not have to be in Frederick, but it is NOT keeping him from Frederick. That is the point."

Steve: "I know we are hearing from the same "critics" now on Bundy that are now saying Matusz was rushed. But hey, let's make that mistake again."

Steve: "The extra side session and less advanced hitters to do it against. Improve that pitch, then move up."

Jon: "pitch already plays and your other arguments (learning to be a pro) sounds more glad handy and a bit contradictory."

My two cents:

There were other tweets mixed in at the end that deal with name calling and such, but they are not important to the discussion at hand.  I think there are positives on both sides of the argument.  There really is no need to rush Bundy right now (Steve's point), but Bundy's opponents in Sally League can't even touch his pitches (Jon's point).  So what's the solution?  It's not my call but I think the Orioles should... 

Move Dylan Bundy to Frederick (Carolina League) now. 

• When you really think about it, Frederick and Delmarva are not that different from a travel and life-style standpoint, so the "learning to be a pro" argument can be thrown out.  He'll still ride buses, and pitch every 5th or 6th day in lackluster A-ball environments/stadiums. 

• Based on what I have read in the past, Bundy's opponents in Frederick will not be so much better than in Delmarva that he can't work on his changeup.  My hope would be that maybe the Carolina League players could at least get a few hits and allow Bundy to work on all aspects of his game.  Aspects of his game that he hasn't and probably won't ever be able to use in Delmarva include holding runners, pick-off moves, higher pitch counts (per inning or entire game), fielding bunts, situational pitching (RISP), etc. 

Those are my two cents (literally).  I'm no authority on this matter, but I think Jon has presented a valid case for Dylan Bundy to move to Frederick, and as you can see, I agree with his viewpoints.

Reimold Leaderboard Status

If Reimold had had 4 more plate appearances as of today^, he would qualify for the MLB batting leader-boards...

He would be 2nd* in the American League and 4th in Major League Baseball in Slugging Percentage (.783) and OPS (1.166).

End of Discussion**: Reimold should be starting every game for the Orioles in some capacity.  But he probably shouldn't be batting lead-off. I prefer to see him in the 2nd, 5th, or 6th spot, since those spots usually result in more at-bats with runners in scoring position. 

^Neck Spasms have forced him to miss 3 of the last 4 games.
*behind only Josh Hamilton
**I realize these are small samples and he is unlikely to continue at this rate, but the potential for production is apparent and undeniable.

Orioles Lead-Off Hitter: Nick Markakis

My last post detailed the problems with the traditional idea of a lead-off hitter.  I reserved my opinion on who I thought should be the Orioles' lead-off until now so I would have some 2012 data* to back up my claims.

*The Orioles have only played 14 games as of today, so this sample is probably a little small.  100 plate appearances is preferable, but data from 2011 can be used to validate any small sample size issues. I'll try to revisit after the Orioles have played 25 and 50 games.

My opinion is that the lead-off hitter should be the team's most proficient player at getting on-base.  In statistical terms, that would be the player with the highest on-base percentage (OBP).  For my selection of the Orioles lead-off hitter, I will use prior year data** for justification.

**Current year could, and probably should be used after 25 games.

Without any further ado, I give you my pick for the Orioles' everyday lead-off hitter: Nick Markakis.  Probably not much of a shocker to those of you that follow the Orioles on a daily basis.  It just makes visual (actually watching the games) and statistical (not just AVG, HRs, and RBIs) sense...

Visual: For all of 2011 and most of 2012, Markakis has made a habit of lacing singles to left field when pitched away.  He does this without regard for the current game situation.  It doesn't matter if the bases are empty in the 1st inning or if there is a man on first with two outs in the 9th inning and the Orioles are down by one, Markakis will try to slap the outside pitch to left field for a single.  The opposing pitchers know he does this and will continue to pitch him on the outside corner to avoid having Markakis get an extra-base hit.  So what does all of that mean?  It means that Markakis should not be batting 3rd in the Orioles lineup.  The 3rd spot is generally reserved for the team's most productive player at creating runs (wRC+), which is not Markakis on the Orioles.  Enough of my opinions, here are the numbers:

	2011			2012*
Typical Lineup	OBP	wOBA	wRC+	OBP	wOBA	wRC+
Reimold	.328	.341	112	.383	.500	217
Hardy	.310	.343	113	.283	.288	76
Markakis	.351	.334	107	.323	.317	95
Jones	.319	.339	110	.333	.416	161
Wieters	.328	.339	110	.380	.412	159
Betemit	.343	.340	112	.171	.218	29
Reynolds	.323	.348	116	.286	.241	45
Davis	.305	.309	89	.348	.371	131
Andino	.327	.305	87	.321	.325	100

*As of April 21st

Markakis was clearly the Orioles most proficient player at getting on-base in 2011, but his 2011 wOBA and wRC+ would be in the bottom 3rd of the Orioles 2012 typical lineup.  A high OBP player that has a low wOBA and WRC+ should not be hitting in the 3rd spot.  Markakis was average (at best) at producing runs in 2011 (wRC+ of 107) and the trend is continuing in 2012 (wRC+ of 95).  The Orioles need to accept the fact that Markakis is not a run producer.

The best way to use Markakis is to put him in the lead-off spot and maximum his talent for getting on-base (since a lead-off hitters primary job is to get on-base).  His OBP is down a little in 2012, but 14 games is a small sample, so I will not judge him yet.  It's likely he'll have the top OBP on the Orioles by the end of the year.

Memo to the Orioles Management: Force Buck to put Markakis in the lead-off spot and get over the fact that you gave Markakis too much money.  It's time to make the best of an expensive contract. Speaking of bad contracts, please release Kevin Gregg while you are at it.

Added Discussion:
See below for my proposed 2012 Orioles lineup.  Let me know what you think.  I don't think there is one right answer for the Orioles lineup (except that Markakis should be leading off in all of them).

Based on 2011 end of year statistics (and the 14 games in 2012), this is the starting lineup I would like to see in 90% of the Orioles games...

Markakis

Jones

Hardy

Wieters

Reimold

Davis

Reynolds

Betemit

Andino