Project #1, Part B - Impact of Fielding Errors

Disclaimer: I am not a statistics professional. Statistics and such statements about those statistics that are published on this blog are not to be considered perfect. If you are looking for accurate research statistics based on absolute science, it is unlikely you will find those here. The ultimate goal of these posts is to see where a common person can use simplified data to find basic statistical trends in sports.

Every basketball and football season, sports analysts from major networks continue to preach the age old adage - "defense wins championships"- when discussing which teams can win it all, but in the baseball, the classic thought is that "pitching wins championships." It is rare to hear people discuss "defense" as a deciding factor for whether a team can win the World Series. My assumption would be that this comes from pitching being misconstrued as "defense" in the baseball world. I agree that on some level pitching is a form of defense, but lets take a closer look at fielding numbers (errors) and see if "defense wins championships", or in MLB terms, the World Series.

The Question:
Is defense (fielding errors) a better predictor of postseason success in Major League Baseball than pitching (ERA)?

New File - Errors and ERA with breakdown tab (images below)

Data Tab

Breakdown Tab

Current MLB Playoff Trends from 2005-2008

Definite Trends (occurs most of the time)

1. World Series teams tend to have an average to great defense.
2. Playoff teams tend to have an average to great ERA.
3. World Series teams tend to have an average to great ERA.
   

Common Trends (occurs over 50% of the time)

1. Playoff teams tend to have an average to great defense.
2. World Series teams tend to have a great ERA.
   

Interesting Trend

1. The best defensive teams only represent 6% of all playoff teams, but tend to have a better chance of making the World Series than teams with an average to bad defense.

My Novice Answer

Poor defensive teams have a marginal chance at making the playoffs and will rarely make the World Series. Teams with a high ERA will rarely make the playoffs, let alone the World Series. Based on the data from Part A and B, I would say that pitching (represented by ERA in this project) is a better predictor of playoff qualification and success than fielding (errors). Great defense may not win a World Series, but it is highly unlikely a team will have success in the playoffs without an average to great defense.

Coming soon: Part C - adding offensive statistics (batting average) to the equation...