Project #1, Part C - Impact of Fielding Errors

Disclaimer: I am not a statistics professional. Statistics and such statements about those statistics that are published on this blog are not to be considered perfect. If you are looking for accurate research statistics based on absolute science, it is unlikely you will find those here. The ultimate goal of these posts is to see where a common person can use simplified data to find basic statistical trends in sports.

I complied the team batting averages for every MLB team from 2005 to 2008. Playoff and World Series batting average trends are noticeable, yet the overall validity of these trends is hard to measure due to scale issues. Finding an acceptable low, medium, and high batting average range between 2005-2008 was possible, but was made more difficult due to the high league batting average of 2006.

Expanded Questions:

1. Is defense (fielding errors) a better predictor of postseason success in Major League Baseball than pitching (ERA) and/or hitting (batting average)?
2. Which statement is more accurate? "defense wins championships" or "pitching wins championship"

Updated File - batting average and league averages added

Data Tab (see file above)

Breakdown Tab

Current MLB Playoff Trends between 2005-2008

Definite Trends (occurred every time)

1. World Series teams have average to great fielding.
2. World Series teams have average to great pitching.
3. World Series teams have average to great hitting.
4. Playoff teams have average to great pitching.
   

Common Trends (occurred 50% to 99% of the time)

1. World Series teams tend to have great pitching.
2. Playoff teams tend to have average to great fielding.
3. Playoff teams tend to have average to great hitting.

Common Trend: League-Defined

1. In the American League, playoff teams tend to have great hitting.
2. In the National League, playoff teams tend to have great pitching.
   

Question #1: Is defense (fielding errors) a better predictor of postseason success in Major League Baseball than pitching (ERA) and/or hitting (batting average)?

Answer: Defense is not the best predictor of postseason success in Major League Baseball based on 2005-2008 data. According to my research, pitching is the best predictor of postseason success or World Series qualification for the foreseeable future - see Common Trend #1. It is very unlikely that a team will make the World Series in the next few years with a poor pitching staff. Average to great hitting was necessary for a team to reach the World Series between 2005 and 2008, but fewer than half had great hitting - see Breakdown Tab.

Order of Postseason Importance: 2005-2008

1. Pitching (Earned Run Average)
2. Hitting (Batting Average)
3. Defense (Fielding Errors)
   

Question #2: Which statement is more accurate? "defense wins championships" or "pitching wins championship"

Answer: "Pitching wins championships" is currently a more accurate statement than "defense wins championships." Both are important, but great pitching has been more apparent in World Series teams than great defense over the past four years - see Common Trend #1. I feel as though it is unfair to say that one aspect of the game (fielding, pitching, hitting) is more important than the other when comes to postseason success and World Series championships. The research shows that a team needs all three aspects of the game to be successful in the postseason - see Definite Trends #1, 2, and 3.

Gripe Project #1 - Impact of Fielding Errors - Conclusion

1. Poor fielding teams only made the playoffs about 20% of the time between 2005-2008.
2. Playoff teams with a high number of errors in the regular season will usually field poorly in the playoffs and never reach the World Series.
3. Teams with great pitching will always have a better shot at winning the World Series than a teams with only great fielding.
4. Poor pitching teams did not make the playoffs once between 2005-2008.
5. A team must be average to great in all facets (fielding, pitching, and hitting) in order to reach the World Series.

Coming Soon...Gripe Project #2 - Playoff Predictor
(based on Gripe Project #1 findings)