Project #2: Part A - NFL Turnover Differential

Disclaimer: I am not a statistics professional. Statistics and such statements about those statistics that are published on this blog are not to be considered perfect. If you are looking for accurate research statistics based on absolute science, it is unlikely you will find those here. The ultimate goal of these posts is to see where a common person can use simplified data to find basic statistical trends in sports.

Now that one-third of the NFL schedule is complete, there is sufficient team data present to start some statistical trend analysis on the 2009 NFL season.  My goal is to see which statistics are the best predictors of success in the regular reason and in the playoffs/SuperBowl.  

First Up:  Turnover Difference

As you can see from the pink shaded percentages, positive turnover difference is a very sound predictor of regular and post season success in the NFL over the past four seasons.  Teams with a positive turnover differential made the playoffs 77% of the time from 2005-2008.  88% of SuperBowl participants between 2005-2008 had a positive turnover differential and 3 of the 4 SuperBowl Champions since 2005 have had a positive turnover differential.  These results seems to signify a definite trend, but it only measures the past 4 years.  Let's take a look at what happens when data from the 1999-2004 and 2005-2008 seasons are combined:

 
Primary Conclusion - It is rare for a team to win the SuperBowl if they turned the ball over more than they took it away in the regular season - 90% of SuperBowl teams from 1999-2008 had a positive turnover differential.    
***Only once in the past 10 years has a team been able to win the SuperBowl with a negative turnover differential in the regular season (NY Giants beating the 18-0 NE Patriots in 2007).  

Secondary Conclusion:  Turnover differential is a solid predictor of regular season success in the NFL - 72% of playoff teams from 1999-2008 had a positive turnover differential.

In an attempt to predict which teams will have success this year, primary conclusions will be used to eliminate teams from SuperBowl contention.  Teams with a negative turnover differential have been marked in the data table with an "X" and will no longer be considered as a possible SuperBowl winner. 

Eliminated Teams* - Panthers, Browns, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Raiders, Seahawks, Rams, Bucs, Titans, Redskins, and Steelers

*It is very possible that teams with a negative turnover differential around -1 to -3 could change their ways and be removed from the eliminated teams list if they start generating more positive turnovers.

Next step, using historical defensive statistics to eliminate a set of the remaining 19 teams from SuperBowl contention...

Social Gripe #1: Divine Beings

Elevator Slaves 
- uses the elevator to go from 2nd floor to 1st floor -

Stop riding the elevator you lazy bums!!  People situated on the higher floors don't have choice - it takes too long to walk down multiple flights of stairs.  If you took the stairs, you would save yourself time and stop wasting our time in the process.  Using an elevator to go from the 2nd floor to the 1st floor puts on display your complete lack of concern for anybody but your stupid self.

Wall Clicks  
- a group that maintains horizontal wall when individuals approach from opposite direction -

Get over yourself and make room for people walking the other way - despite what you may think, you are not the only person in this world.  Instead of being a courteous individual and forming a vertical line when necessary, you proceed to knock people off walkways or into walls.  And for you men that do this when a lady is approaching, you have no class - forcing a lady off a sidewalk and into the mud is inexcusable.

General Gripe #2: "Singers"

Miley Cyrus = Man-boy

When will people realize that she sounds like a boy when she is singing her "hit" songs?  I wish people besides me would acknowledge that her songs are not good.  Don't be surprised if she announces she is of the male gender in the future.

Rihanna = The Screecher  

Has anybody else noticed that her "songs" contain very little singing?  The constant screaming, howling, yelling, and barking during her so-called "hit" songs is very annoying and harmful to my ears. 

Social Gripe #3: Egocentrics - Part B: Recreation

Recreation - refreshment of health or spirits by relaxation and enjoyment

In my opinion, Egocentrics are amazingly good at ruining all types of recreation (casual, competitive, fun, etc.)  They find ways to stop the "relaxation and enjoyment" part and tend to ruin the "refreshment of health or spirits" through their selfish/egocentric ways.  Listed below are the Egocentric character-types that have ruined my past attempts at Recreation:

1.  Super-Athlete - Ever play against somebody that was ripped from head to toe, runs the 40 in 4.3 seconds, and can bench over 300 pounds?  Yeah, this person tends to show up in recreation leagues or pickup games in an attempt to "own" everybody by crushing them with their superior athletic attributes.  Go play somebody from your fantasy land of athletic perfection.  What's the point in turning other people's fun recreational activity into a painful struggle?
Three Words:  Get a Life!! 

2.  The Painfully Serious - Their Method of Operation: Everything is a competition and everything must be done with a 110% (beyond maximum) effort.  They typically play with such passion and drive that the well-being of other players is ignored. Maximum Seriousness = Maximum Injury Potential
Typical Occurrence: Accidental injuries to innocent bystanders.

3.  Dirty Player - Physically hurting fellow players during fun activities is always an option for them.  They will kick, scream, scratch, and claw their way to top (even if the situation was casual).  Pain is only temporary in their mind, but opposing players are usually the only ones feeling the pain.
My advice:  Avoid this character at all times (expect a great deal of pain if you get within 10 feet of them during recreational activities) 

4.  Mr(s). Awesome - Their Permanent Mindset:  I am "God's Gift to Recreation".  If you ever get the pleasure of playing with Mr(s). Awesome, get used to being wrong all of the time. He/she will dominate all aspects of the game while controlling your actions, and then he/she will proceed to berate you later for messing up and being stupid. 
Simple Solution:  Run Away!!  No matter the final outcome, your self-esteem will be at an all-time low thanks to them.

5.  Complainer (guilty as charged) - Unfortunately, I probably fall into this category, but feel as though I only become this when other recreational egocentrics are present.  This person tends to complain about every part of the recreational activity.  They will even find a way to complain when everything is going perfect for them.
Their Typical Location:  Find the Referee (they are usually yelling at them or in their general direction).

Stay tuned for future posts on other types of Egocentrics...

Social Gripe #3: Egocentrics - Part A: Workplace

I think I'm ready to start griping again and I apologize for the lack of posts lately.  I've been trying to keep a positive attitude, thus the lack of "gripes", but I'm ready to complain again (human nature, right?).  This series of posts shall focus on the Egocentrics - the most annoying group of people in my opinion.  I present to you a list of annoying Egocentric character-types from the Workplace:

1.  Hand-Raisers - These are the people that must raise their hand in every class, presentation, meeting, etc.  They usually have nothing important to say but they have this strange urge to hear themselves talk (usually a result of their own stupidity or insecurity issues).  My Advice: Open your Hears and Shut Up!!

2.  Yappers - Continuation of #1.  These are the people who not only raise their hand, but proceed to give the entire audience a complete recap of the session through the use of a dumb question or complaint about a totally insignificant minute detail.  Please Shut Up and spare all of us from your useless dribble.

3.  Control Freaks - One Word: Trust.  The world won't end if you let somebody else complete a task.  Give people an opportunity to succeed, and they might surprise you - loosening your grip might even make your job easier in the immediate or near future. 

4.  Micro-Managers - If you are a boss and you check on your employee's work status more than once a day, then you are a micro-manager.  Learn to trust your employees.  Micro-managing is bad for an employee's psyche and their productivity usually suffers in the long run because of your constant pestering.

5.  Workaholics - For all of you that work for Uncle Sam: 9 to 5 means you should show up for work at 9am and leave at 5pm.  You are only getting paid for those hours, so there is no need to stay until 8pm to check email and find new ways to annoy others.  Simple Motto: Work to Live, not Live to Work.

6.  Self-Professed "Intellectuals" - Those of you that speak to your co-workers with "big" words from your 1600 SAT vocabulary fall into this category.  You are not smarter than somebody just because you use "big" words.  In my opinion, you are the dumb one because you only feel good when you are using your vast vocabulary in an attempt to demean others.  Get over yourself and try to act normal!!  Life Goal: Instead of being a selfish jerk, try to make people feel good about themselves before stroking your massive vocabulary ego.

Stay tuned for future posts on other types of Egocentrics...