#bullets

At some point in the middle of the Wizard's debacle last night, I came to the conclusion/realization that I'm done with the #wizards twitter hashtag and the "Wizards" name.  I started using the #bullets hashtag for all of my tweets.  I see the #bullets hashtag as an opportunity/starting point for a movement to bring back the Bullets name.  I say screw the Wizards name and everything it tried to stand for*.

*The name change attempted to distance the franchise from the gun violence that existed in DC during the 1980's.  People, governments, and politics can decrease crime rates, not a professional basketball team's name change.

After this post, I will no longer use the name Wizards to describe the NBA franchise in Washington, D.C.  I ask you to join me in this quest to eliminate the Wizards name from the internet stratosphere.  One way or another, the Bullets name will reappear...

I implore all Wizards Bullets fans to use the #bullets hash tag for all related posts, tweets, and opinions about the NBA's Washington D.C. franchise. 

Justification isn't really necessary since Irene Pollin has already given her blessing for the switch back to the Bullets name...

“I respect my husband’s wishes. I love him very much. I miss him terribly. If the fans want to change it back — hey, why not?” Irene Pollin said recently. “To me, it’s what do the fans want? What’s going to please them? To me, they’re the ones who support, care.”

I know what this true DC basketball fan wants and I'm pretty sure the majority of the legit DC basketball fans agree with me.  And it's quite simple, get rid of the awful Wizards name and bring back the only correct name for a DC basketball franchise...

Bullets Bullets Bullets

I found Leonsis' response to Irene Pollin's comments lackluster and similar to that of a DC politician...

“The Wizards organization, our fans, our players and our alumni remain extremely excited about the return to red, white and blue and the introduction of our new team marks. Our focus is a commitment to celebrating that change with our fans”. 

He is definitely avoiding the real issue with those words. Changing the team colors back to red, white, and blue is nice but it seems like a half-baked attempt to sell tickets and please the die-hard DC fans. You want to make some real change and get people back into the Verizon Center, then undo a name change that should have never happened.

#bullets

Plate Appearances and fWAR: Position Players

If you need a primer on fWAR, please visit the FanGraphs' Sabermetric Library entry for fWAR.  I highly recommend FanGraphs, as their Sabermetric Library contains detailed information on many other advanced baseball statistics. 

Listed below is the latest data I pulled from FanGraphs for the Orioles active position players (for games played through August 30, 2011): 

Player	PA	OBP	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR	fWAR(e): (PA/fWAR)*2
J.J. Hardy	453	0.315	0.831	0.355	121	3.6	252
Matt Wieters	456	0.329	0.760	0.333	106	3.4	268
Adam Jones	546	0.327	0.805	0.349	117	2.9	377
Nick Markakis	597	0.342	0.742	0.328	103	2.0	597
Nolan Reimold	221	0.308	0.728	0.316	95	0.6	737
Robert Andino	389	0.327	0.652	0.299	83	0.7	1111
Mark Reynolds	522	0.326	0.815	0.350	118	0.8	1305
Craig Tatum	72	0.286	0.567	0.260	56	0.1	1440
Matt Angle	21	0.190	0.348	0.181	2	-0.1	N/A
Vladimir Guerrero	471	0.306	0.695	0.304	86	-0.4	N/A
Jake Fox	58	0.276	0.683	0.299	83	-0.3	N/A
Ryan Adams	60	0.333	0.690	0.309	90	0.0	N/A

As if it wasn't apparent in my past posts, I'm a big fan/supporter of the fWAR statistic as a measurement for player production.  I wanted to take the statistic one level further though.  It may be a simple misunderstanding on my part, but fWAR does not appear to distinguish between a player with 600 plate appearance and one with 100 plate appearances.  I read the literature on fWAR and number of plate appearances seems to be inconsequential in the calculation, since it measures a player's contribution/production, not the quality/efficiency level of their play.

I developed a simple calculation that uses Plate Appearances in conjunction with fWAR to determine the quality/efficiency of a player's fWAR.  This metric, fWAR(e), determines how many plate appearances it takes for a player to achieve a league average fWAR of 2.0*.  As you can see from below (and in the table above), the equation is not complex and quite elementary: 

Equation Formula (abbreviated):   fWAR(e) = (PA/fWAR)*2   or 

Equation Formula (extended):  To calculate fWAR(e), divide the player's Plate Appearances by their fWAR, then multiple that number by league average fWAR (2)

Be advised, I'm not trying to change fWAR or create some great new statistic.  I'm not a math guru either, so take this all with a grain of salt.  Just trying to find new ways to look at the Orioles disappointing season and maybe find a silver lining for next season. 

Results:

• J.J. Hardy is the highest producing and most efficient position player on the Orioles roster.  His fWAR of 3.6 leads the team and his 252 fWAR(e) is the lowest/best.  To put his fWAR(e) in perspective, J.J. Hardy can contribute league average production to a team in about 252 plate appearances.
• Andino and Reynolds have not been efficient players in 2011.  They require over a season's worth of plate appearances to achieve league average production.
• Hardy, Wieters, and Jones are the only highly efficient position players on the Orioles roster.  Highly efficient meaning they will produce over league average in one season's worth of plate appearances (650 PA).
• Markakis is just barely above league average (required 600 PA to achieve league average fWAR of 2.0) and Reimold is just below the league average number.
• Vladimir Guerrero does not even contribute at a replacement level of 0.0 fWAR, so his fWAR(e) cannot be calculated.  His fWAR of -0.4 is pathetic and NEGATIVE!!**  Vlad was a waste of 8 million dollars. 

*League Average for fWAR varies by season, but 2.0 is a good standard for this simple experiment.  

**One of the fallacies of fWAR(e) is negative fWAR.  It destroys the equation - a real statistics guru could probably remedy this situation.  Bottom line though, if a player has a negative fWAR after at least 100 plate appearances, the player is unlikely to reach a league average 2.0 fWAR.

Reimold's Clutch Walk-Off Home Run

Orioles won last night 6-4 in 10 innings over the White Sox thanks to Nolan Reimold's Walk-Off Home Run.  Follow the link and savor the moment...

Reimold Walk-Off Home Run*

A nice win for the Orioles last night, so no complaints from me today.  Hopefully this is the start of a hot streak for Nolan. Looking forward to seeing Reimold and his team high clutch rate** of .95 in the lineup again tonight.

*It's unfortunate that MLB prevents one from embedding a game highlight on a blog.

**Clutch rate measures how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.  Next highest clutch rate on team is JJ Hardy at .47.

Buck Logic Failure #3: Over-Usage of Wieters

The title of this post is a little misleading, since the over-usage of Matt Wieters is not completely the fault of Buck Showalter.  Andy MacPhail has to shoulder some of the blame as well.  Before I tell you why I think MacPhail is to blame for Wieters' diminished plate production, look at Matt's troubling 2011 monthly splits:

Month	GP	AB	AVG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+
April	22	73	0.260	0.826	0.361	126
May	24	90	0.278	0.678	0.301	85
June	23	81	0.247	0.665	0.293	79
July	23	85	0.235	0.685	0.301	85

Wieters had a great April, but he has been steadily unproductive the past three months.  I blame this decreased production on Buck and MacPhail.  The lineup flexibiliity of the Orioles was eliminated once Vladimir Guerrero was signed during the off-season - this was a mistake by MacPhail and he should accept the blame. It took away any chance Buck had of resting position players while keeping their bat in the lineup.  Because of Vlad's inability to play the field, Buck can only get Wieters into the lineup at catcher.  The blame also falls on Buck because he has never benched Vlad in favor of a DH start for Wieters. 

Because Vlad plays every game, this is the situation:

Typical Starts by Position breakdown for Wieters WITH Vlad on the roster:
 

Wieters Slots w/Vlad	Rest	DH	Catcher
7-Game Week	1	0	6
6-Game Week	1	0	5

This could be the situation (more rest for Wieters):

Hypothetical Starts by Position breakdown for Wieters WITHOUT Vlad on the roster:

Wieters Slots w/o Vlad	Rest	DH	Catcher
7-Game Week	1	2	4
6-Game Week	1	1	4

So why does all this starts by position matter?  In my opinion, all of this catching is wearing Wieters down, which isn't surprising considering the Baltimore heat/humidity combination and the fact that Wieters is 6'5" (very tall for a catcher).  Besides April, Wieters really hasn't produced at the plate.  Now granted, he continues to field like a gold-glover each month, but the batting numbers are troubling.  Projections for the rest of the year are not likely to favor increased production at the plate. 

The root cause of this is Vlad.  Without Vlad on the roster, Buck would have been able to use Wieters at DH more in the beginning of the season, thus keeping his "legs" fresh for the last few months of the season.  Obviously, this is just my opinion based on some loose numbers, but the eye test hasn't been good either.  Wieters has looked tired and possibly a little lazy at the plate during the last few weeks, and I can't blame him considering the heavy work load.  He deserves more starts at DH or even an extra day or rest during parts of the season where the Orioles have limited days off.  There is no way to prove whether Wieters would be better with more rest, but I highly doubt the extra days off would hurt.  A OPS of around .750 (league-average) is possible, and if you combine that with his elite fielding, the Orioles have themselves one of the best catchers in MLB. 

The simple truth is that Wieters is being over-used and over-worked as catcher for no reason.  A team should not wear down one of it's best players during a losing season.  If the Orioles were fighting for a playoff spot, I would play Wieters 5 times a week at catcher, but that isn't the case here.  The season is lost, so please release or bench Vlad, and play DH Wieters at least twice a week in an effort to perverse the future.   

Side Note:  Some of you may want to discount this Wieters' rest theory by saying our backup catcher is bad and wouldn't have made up for Vlad sitting on the bench.  The numbers say otherwise.  Craig Tatum (O's backup catcher) has produced at the same level as Vlad, in 300 less at-bats.  Both players have a fWAR of 0.2, which is incredbile considering Tatum has played in 74 fewer games than Vlad.  I'd say the Orioles wasted 8 million dollars on Vlad while putting extra, undue stress on their franchise catcher during a wasted season. 

Buck Logic Failure #2: Manager Hypocrisy (Reimold & Davis)

Over the weekend, the Orioles traded away Koji for a back-of-the-rotation starter (Tommy Hunter) and a AAAA first-baseman (Chris Davis).  Nothing too significant or concerning about this trade in my mind.  Ultimately, I don't see this trade amounting to much in the future.  Probably will go down as a friendly gesture by the Orioles to help the Rangers playoff aspirations.  But then I saw the reports from Roch and Connolly explaining how the newly acquired first-baseman Chris Davis will receive regular at-bats at first-base and even some starts at third-base and in left-field through the rest of the season.  My immediate reaction was OUTRAGE.  I cannot understand why a manager would give extended playing time at multiple positions to newcomer Chris Davis, but not extend the same courtesy to the deserving, home-grown Nolan Reimold.

This is another example of #bucklogic:  Manager Hypocrisy

Advanced Statistics for Nolan Reimold and Chris Davis (via FanGraphs):

Career	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Reimold	667	0.256	0.340	0.432	0.772	0.340	104	0.9
Davis	957	0.247	0.299	0.453	0.752	0.322	91	-0.1
2011	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Reimold	125	0.229	0.320	0.431	0.751	0.326	102	0.3
Davis	85	0.238	0.282	0.388	0.670	0.296	84	0.0
Age 25 Season	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Reimold (2009)	411	0.279	0.365	0.466	0.831	0.365	118	1.2
Davis (2011)	85	0.238	0.282	0.388	0.670	0.296	84	0.0

At first glance, the Career numbers are making a case for Reimold being a better player.  The one caveat to this is that Reimold is three years older than Davis, and Reimold did not break into the major leagues until the age of 25*.  I believe Reimold has earned the right to play every game since he has generated 1.0 fWAR more than Davis in his career with 300 less plate appearances.  The disparity in production between the two players is even greater if you take out the 2010 season (fWAR of -0.6 in 131 PA) where Reimold was playing despite still rehabbing from Achilles' Tendon surgery.

*I'm not a huge believer in the wide-spread notion that players peak around the age of 27 and regress each proceeding year; Reimold is likely to disprove that theory.  

In regards to the 2011 numbers, few conclusions can be draw from small samples (Reimold has hit better this year).  These numbers, at the end of the season, will hopefully shed some light on the future output of Davis and Reimold as Baltimore Orioles.  Since Davis will playing everyday in the 5th spot and Reimold will continue to be benched about 3 days a week, I would project both Reimold and Davis to have around 325 plate appearances when season concludes in September.  Half of season's plate appearances (325) should help the Orioles identify whether these two players are major league caliber starters or bench-fodder.

I added the Age 25 Season numbers as a place-holder for future analysis.  Since 2011 is Davis's Age 25 Season, judgment will have to be withheld until the season is over.  I highly doubt Davis and his 0.0 WAR will be able to match Reimold's Age 25 Season output of 1.2 fWAR in the Orioles remaining 57 games.

So I ask again, why have Andy MacPhail and Buck Showalter deemed Chris Davis an everyday player and not Nolan Reimold?  It's a loaded question distorted by baseball politics, ignorance, misconceptions, and most importantly, Manager Hypocrisy.  Over their brief careers, the statistics bear the truth that Reimold has been the more productive player, yet he is treated like a replacement-level player by his manager.  I only ask one thing of Buck Showalter...

If you are going to play Chris Davis every game, then please play the more productive player, Nolan Reimold in every game as well.  In my opinion, it is the only fair outcome for the players.  Manager Hypocrisy is not a part of The Oriole Way and it will not be tolerated by this die-hard Orioles fan!! 

Buck Logic Failure #1: Veterans over Prospects

So I was all set up to write the concluding piece on my concerns for the Orioles future, but then I realized that reasons 3 and 4 were overkill.  Reason 3 being the Orioles young pitching regression, not progression.  I think it may be a little early to proclaim the "pitching cavalry" as a failure.  I'm going to hold off my judgment of the Orioles pitching prospects for at least another year.  My 4th reason for concern was the lack of quality minor league depth in the Oriole system - this is a major concern, but I don't have the resources to fully analyze this issue.  I suggest you visit Camden Depot and Orioles-Nation for a complete and accurate breakdown of the Orioles failing farm system.

Lately, I've developed a habitat of placing a #bucklogic hash tag on my tweets whenever I am disappointed with Buck Showalter's managerial decisions.  I believe the majority of his actions are devoid of the new-age baseball logic being used by the best baseball managers in MLB.  In my opinion, the baseball logic that accompanies winning involves the use of advanced statistics, substance over style, and production over experience.  I see a lot of managers making game decisions based on their 80's inspired instincts instead of the new sabermetric statistics developed by Bill James and others.  Because of this, I see numerous Old School managers giving too much playing time to older, "veteran" players that contribute the same, if not less than young, developing prospects.

Now granted, Old School managing can be very useful for teams like the Yankees and Red Soxs.  Those teams are not as concerned with young player development since they can continually sign high-priced, productive free agents each off-season.  Their end goal is to win now, and 99% of the time, they are competing for divisions titles and league championships because of their 1st-Tier free agent acquisitions.  The Orioles, on the other hand, cannot lure the best players to Camden Yards, so they sign 3rd-Tier free agents to fill lineup holes.  Buck Logic #1 is the result...

Buck Logic #1:  Veterans (3rd-Tier Free Agents) put in lineup over Talented Prospects (Possible Future Winners)

Playing an aging, overpaid veteran during a losing season over a young prospect is counter-productive to the future success of the Orioles.  Okay, yes, the veteran MAY (not this year though) help the Orioles win an additional two or three games, but is 66 wins all that different from 70, or even 75 for that matter?  In my opinion, no, placating the fan base will the idea of 81 wins and .500 record is insulting.  I want to see the Orioles strive for the playoffs and division titles, not "let's get 81 wins and try again the next year" (2011 unofficial Orioles slogan).  Losers talk about achieving a .500 record whereas Winners never accept defeat.  I don't believe Buck is a loser, but as you will see below, his decision to constantly play veterans over young players this season is costing the Orioles wins and precious development time.

2011 Season Advanced Stats
Annoying Veterans	Position	GP	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Vladimir Guerrero	DH	84	0.695	0.307	89	-0.1
Derrek Lee	1B	81	0.698	0.306	89	0.4
Luke Scott*	LF/DH	64	0.703	0.309	90	0.0
Cesar Izturis	IF	16	0.442	0.209	22	0.1
Talented Prospects
Nolan Reimold	LF/DH	35	0.813	0.350	119	0.5
Brandon Synder	1B	6	0.720	0.345	115	0.0
Blake Davis	IF	16	0.641	0.290	78	0.2
Ryan Adams	IF	9	0.497	0.235	40	-0.3
Felix Pie (just kidding)**	LF/DH	72	0.523	0.231	37	-1.8

*Should injury impact should be noted.  Finally DL'ed for rest of season last week.
**Former Talented Prospect that is terrible at baseball.  Orioles still think he has potential despite every statistical measure stating the opposite.

Conclusions:

1. Nolan Reimold should start every game at DH or LF.  His overall production (fWAR) is 0.5 in 35 games, which is 0.6 better than Vlad's in 84 games and 0.5 better than Scott in 64 games.  Reimold's salary for 2011 is ~500k, Vlad's is ~8 million.  Orioles could have saved around $7 million and gotten more production by not signing Vlad.
2. Brandon Synder should have been given a chance to play 1B more, but signing Lee kept him in AAA.  It's a small sample for 2011, but he doesn't seem lost at the plate and is making less than $1 million.  Lee's contract is $7.25, so I would take the player for $6 million less and sacrifice a win or two in a "quest for .500" season in order to put more money into international signings and domestic draft prospects.
3. According to most news sources, the Orioles will activate Izturis (0.1 fWAR in 16 games) from the DL soon.  Izturis is a one year stopgap that adds no value to the team.  Cut him and keep playing Blake Davis (0.2 in 16 games).  Davis is young, cheap, and has a little upside whereas Izturis is what he is - an average and versatile fielder that bring nothing to plate.  
4. Most importantly, Felix Pie needs to be cut immediately.  I didn't list Matt Angle in the chart, but I don't think his bat and fielding can be worse than Pie's.  Every time Pie plays, he is hurting the Orioles more than he is helping.  Pie's fWAR of -1.8 is the worse amongst all MLB outfielders.

Concern for the O's Future: Reasons 1 & 2

Based on their recent play, I would expect the Orioles to continue being bad at baseball for at least the next three years.  The five year outlook doesn't look any better in my opinion, but I want to focus on three year future for the purposes of this discussion.  The pathetic baseball that has been played by the Baltimore Orioles the past 14 days has disheartened my fan loyalty and driven me to rant/gripe/cry/yell about their future via blog posts.

For the past the few years, the fans have been told by Andy MacPhail to be patience and wait for "the plan" to be carried out to fruition.  I don't want to detail out "the plan", but its basic foundation is to "grow the arms, buy the bats, and be patience until 2011" (that was my understanding of it).  Well guess what, it's 2011, we're at the end of "the plan's" life-cycle and I'm having trouble finding reasons to be positive about the future.

As one would expect, I did not have any trouble finding reasons to doubt there would be success for the Orioles in the future.  I have identified four reasons why I think the Orioles will not be competitive in the next three years.  Reasons 1 & 2 (see below) explain how Andy MacPhail's "Plan" failed to understand that a team will not be competitive in the AL East if it doesn't at least attempt to draft a multitude of high school/college players with premium talent and purchase/sign multiple high-end major league players.

1.  No Playoff Hopes:  Orioles are still no closer to the playoffs then when MacPhail took over as General Manager.  The 2011 Orioles are likely to win somewhere between 70 and 75 games this year, a slight increase from 2010's 64 win campaign.  From my perspective, the difference between 64 wins and 75 wins in the American League is nothing since both of those teams would be at least 20 games out of the playoffs. 

Current Realization: Orioles are still a 20 game Overall win improvement away from a chance at the playoffs.
Future Realization:  No one player (P. Fielder for instance) is going to improve this team by 20 wins.

2.  Getting Owned by the AL East Teams:  Orioles have to beat the teams in their own division to reach the playoffs.  The unbalanced schedule means the Orioles have to play the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays a total of 72 times each season (18 per team), which means 44% of the Orioles' games come against the AL East.  I don't need a statistic to tell me a team better win at least 50% of the games against your division if you want to make the playoffs.  Average Win Percentage for the AL East Champion since 2006:  .602

To put that number in perspective, the Orioles were 135-208 (.385) against the AL East during that same time period.  On average, the Orioles were about 15 games under .500 each year against the AL East.  Currently, the Orioles are 10-18 (.360) against the AL East.  If they lose all four games against the Red Sox this weekend like I expect them to, they will be 10-22 (.312) against the AL East. 

Current Realization: Orioles are at least a 20 game versus AL East win improvement away from being competitive in the AL East.
Future Realization:  The Orioles are likely to lose their best player, J.J. Hardy, to a trade by July 31st or during free agency after the season.  There is no viable player in the farm system to replace him for at least 2 more years.  A playoff berth is not a realistic goal for 2012 if you cannot retain your highest performing players. 

Conclusion: The Orioles are bad at baseball and need to improve their win total by at least 20 games if they want to be part of the AL playoff race. Please Orioles, prove me wrong!!

In my next post (Reasons 3 & 4), I will explain how #McFail's "plan" was strategically and fundamentally misguided from the very beginning...

Reimold Bench Tracker

For the past seven games, the Orioles have not started Nolan Reimold in a single game.  I was able to let this benching slide by for a few games, but I will no longer stand by quietly as this stupidity continues.  The "Reimold Bench Tracker" on my twitter account (@guidosgripes) is currently set to 7.  This is representative of the number of games the Orioles have played since Reimold's last start*.

*Pinch-Hitting and late game Defensive Substitutions will NOT reset the counter. 

According to Roch Kutatko, Showalter isn't likely to use Reimold until this weekend's series with the Atlanta Braves.  The Orioles would have you believe that Reimold should only start when the opposing team starts a left-handed pitcher - they could not be more wrong.  See this post by Krem's Sports for further statistical proof that Reimold doesn't just hit well against lefties.  I will continue this tracker each day until Reimold is written into a starting lineup.  I project that Reimold will "play" in the Atlanta Braves series (since they are in the ATL and must use NL-rules), but the Braves are sending out three right-handed starters, so by Oriole/Buck logic, Reimold will not be in the starting lineup for the entire series.

The Orioles are not scheduled to face a left-handed starting pitcher until July 5th.  As O's fans, we can only hope that Buck will wake-up and start Reimold before Independence Day, but if he doesn't, the tracker will have reached a ridiculous 12 games.

Wizards' Draft Opinions with 2011 Projected Lineups

After the NBA Lottery punished the Wizards with the 6th pick, my expectations for a successful draft were lowered significantly.  Being able to select Enes Kanter was my dream scenario for the Wizards pre-lottery.  After witnessing the lottery, I figured that they would end up having to select the worst of my 2nd tier since they had the 6th pick.  My 1st tier was Irving and Williams and my 2nd tier consisted of Kanter, Knight, Vesely, and Valanciunas.  In essence, they did end up selecting the worst of my 2nd tier, but after some careful analysis, I'm not as bummed about the pick as I thought I would be initially.

First off, I thought a Wizards trade up to the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th by way of their 6th/18th pick was a major possibility based what the "sources" were saying leading up to the draft.  These rumors were raising my expectations for the Wizards to draft elite talent.  Come to find out, the teams with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th pick not only wanted the Wizards' 6th/18th picks but a 1st Round pick in next year's draft as well.  Insanity, quality organizations building for championships ignore this trade and give eye-rolls to the offering team's front office.  Based on that knowledge, my expectations for the Wizards draft was lowered, but ultimately, I was pleased with the overall outcome.

I do tire of Ernie Grunfield's love for tall European players, but it's pretty obvious that Jan Vesely, the Wizards' 1st Round pick (6th Overall), is not your stereotypical, "soft" European player.  He's not afraid of contact, battles constantly on the defense end, and has superior athleticism.  Every player that the Wizards surround John Wall with should have those attributes.  Because of his high basketball IQ and diligent work ethic, Jan Vesely should be a valuable addition to the Wizards' rotation for the foreseeable future (unlike past euro players like Pecherov and Veremeenko).

As for their 2nd pick in the 1st round (18th overall), it was pretty much a no-brainer.  Chris Singleton was the best player left on the board and Wizards really needed a quality wing player.  He plays exceptional defense and much to my surprise, is faster than John Wall in the 3/4 sprint.  No complaints about that pick.  As for their 2nd round pick, Shelvin Mack is a fundamental sound player that also has a high basketball IQ along with a knack for winning games and playing in crunch time.  His minutes will probably be pretty small until later in the season or he may not even play for the Wizards until 2012. 

The Wizards have built a team of defenders that can run with any team in the NBA.  They will be exciting and fun to watch.  I have my doubts about their effectiveness in the half-court game, but I'm going to assume this is why they still have Blatche on the roster.  I'm not the biggest Blatche fan, but he does provide a consistent semi-low post game in the half-court.  Wizards didn't have much else going for them in the half-court in 2010/11 beyond Blatche, some Wall pick-and-rolls, and screens for Nick Young.  Besides resigning Nick Young during free agency, I don't see the Wizards too many other changes to this roster - a few roster fill-ins and another free agent at the most.  With all that being said, here are my projected 1st and 2nd team lineups (post-draft, pre-free agency) for the Wizards come opening night:

1st Team

PG - John Wall
SG - Nick Young
SF - Rashard Lewis
PF - Andray Blatche
C - Javale McGee

2nd Team (in order off the bench)

1.  Jordan Crawford (combo-guard)
2.  Chris Singleton (wing defender)
3.  Trevor Booker (SF/PF banger)
4.  Jan Vesely (energy guy/versatile defender)
5.  Kevin Seraphin (backup big man)
6.  Othyus Jeffers (spot minutes)

Only a little bit of griping today (lack of half-court offense for 2011).  I withheld bashing the Wizards today because I'm genuinely pleased with the decisions made by the front office during the draft - this doesn't happen often.  I would call this draft a success for the Wizards right now, but let's wait until these guys play together before we heap too much praise onto the front office.

2011 O's and 2012 O's: Lineup Differences and Possibilities

Current (Typical) 2011 Orioles Lineup:

1.  Hardy (SS)
2.  Markakis (RF)
3.  Jones (CF)
4.  Guerrero (DH)
5.  Wieters (C)
6.  Lee (1B)
7.  Scott (LF)
8.  Reynolds (3B)
9.  Andino (2B)

As you can probably see, this is not a terrible lineup on paper if you use their 2010 individual statistics.  The problem is a very simple one - the Orioles current lineup is league average in every shape and form.  The proof is in the numbers.  See below for a comparison of the 2011 Orioles lineup to the 2011 American League "League Averages" as of June 23rd, 2011:

As of June 23rd, 2011	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2011 AL "League Average"	0.254	0.321	0.395	0.717
2011 Orioles	0.259	0.321	0.393	0.714

It's pretty apparent by looking at those numbers that the 2011 Baltimore Orioles lineup is ordinary and league average.  I do not foresee these numbers changing dramatically over the rest of the season either.  The Orioles will probably end 2011 as a league average offensive team.  This would not be frowned upon as much if the Orioles were in the NL West Weak, but the AL bEAST will be their home for the immediate and near future, so league average is not acceptable. 

The Orioles Front Office has a prime opportunity this off-season to create a formidable AL East-type lineup by signing one player: Prince Fielder.  To start, a lot of the expensive dead weight in this lineup (Lee, Vlad, maybe Scott) will no longer be under contract by the start of 2012.  My hope and belief is that Andy McPhail Peter Angelos will use the money from those expiring contracts to make a serious contract offer to Fielder.  I know the idea of the Orioles signing Prince Fielder is not a new one (see articles 1, 2, and 3), but it's the most direct and easy way, in my opinion for the Orioles to compete in 2012.  Here is the possible 2012 lineup with Fielder being the only off-season acquisition:

1.  Hardy (SS) - I know it's going to be difficult for the O's to keep him (going to command 8-12 MM).
2.  Markakis (RF) - His diminished power keeps him in the 2nd spot.  Still a .300 hitter in my opinion.
3.  Jones (CF) - He would see lots of strikes with Fielder behind him.
4.  Fielder (1B) - No comment is really necessary, pure power-hitter that produces runs consistently (1.033 OPS in 2011 - no other Oriole is in his ballpark).
5.  Wieters (C) - Awesome with RISP (frequent opportunities with Fielders' average of 20 IBBs a year in front of him)
6.  Reimold (DH) - High OBP + High SLG = Offensive Production
7.  Reynolds (3B) - Must keep him lower in lineup due to strikeouts (rally-killer).  See Reimold Comment.
8.  Pie (LF) - This could be Luke Scott, but either way, it's a weak position where a Free Agent could help.
9.  Roberts (2B) - I still have faith that he can be productive again (needs to take the rest of 2011 off).

I know this lineup is far from perfect (signing a productive 2B or LFer would push it closer to elite status).  From my perspective, the top of the lineup cannot get much better unless they decide to start spending like the Yanks/Soxs.  But I have serious concerns about the 6-9 spots... 

I'm a major Reimold apologist/supporter, so I'm probably being too generous with his potential as a quality DH/LF.  Any lineup with Reynolds in the 7 spot is okay by me.  Problem is, Reynolds defense (16 errors as of June 23rd) is so atrocious that it cancels out all of the valuable stuff he accomplishes at the plate (.350 OBP and .462 SLG for 2011).  Pie would be servicable as a #8 hitter, but he lacks the power (.302 SLG for 2011) and patience (.252 OBP for 2011) of even an average major league player.  Roberts (or Adams/Andino) is perfectly suited for the 9 spot with plus on-base skills (.353 career OBP) and speed. 

This mock 2012 lineup is not perfect, but it's a far cry from the past and the addition of an impact bat is something the Orioles have not had in at least a decade.  This projected 2012 lineup coupled with a healthy, progressing starting rotation could lead to an exciting 2012 season.  I'm going out on a limb, but I think the Orioles will win 88-90 games next year, but only IF (big IF) they sign Prince Fielder.

Go O's!! Bring back The Orioles Way!!

2009 O's and 2011 O's: Pitching Rotation Difference

Orioles 2009 Pitching Rotation: Top 5 (Games Started) Starting Pitchers
1. J. Guthrie (32)
2. J. Berken (23)
3. B. Bergesen (19)
4. D. Hernandez (19)
5. R. Hill (13), C. Tillman (12), Uehara (12), Henderickson (10)

One Word Analysis:  Horrific
Gripe:  How did I survive an entire year watching this pitching staff?  I think I stopped watching during the month of June and some of July for my own sanity.
Comment:  The only good thing that came out of this season, from a pitching perspective, was the sight of Bergesen, Matusz, and Tillman pitching decently in the last two months of the season. 

Orioles 2011 Pitching Rotation: Top 5 (Games Started) Starting Pitchers
1. J. Arrieta (15)
2. J. Guthrie (14)
3. Z. Britton (13)
4. C. Tillman (10)
5. B. Bergesen (9), Matusz (3)

One Word Analysis: Talent
Gripe: There is still lots of growing to be done by the young pitchers, but at least they have talent.  Can they put it all together and stay consistent for more than 2 or 3 starts at a time?
Comment:  There is a lot of promise here and hope for the future.  I actually look forward to watching every Orioles game, because I see the potential in these pitchers.  It's a far cry from 2009 where there was little talent in the rotation and no prospects of ace pitchers in the rotation.


Despite the ups and downs of the 2011 season thus far, I still believe that the Orioles will be competitive in 2013.  It's refreshing to see an Orioles team with talented pitchers who want to compete and win every day.  In my opinion, this off-season will determine whether the Orioles will be just a winning team or a true championship contender for 2013 and beyond.  I have faith that Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Tillman, and Bergesen will allow the Orioles to compete on a daily basis (unlike 2009) for the next few years, but will the Orioles Front Office ever sign the pure impact bat that could push the Orioles into contention for the AL bEAST crown?

Up Next: 2011 O's and 2012 O's: Lineup Differences and Possibilities

Quick Observation of the O's Lineup: 6-16-11

As a point of reference, listed below are the current OPS numbers for the O's position players:

Hardy 0.880 Reimold 0.861 Scott 0.780 Jones 0.778 Tatum 0.777 Reynolds 0.763 Wieters 0.741 Vlad 0.717 Andino 0.649 Markakis 0.639 Lee 0.597 Pie 0.556 Adams 0.519

In 2010, the standard for an above-average hitter was an OPS around .800.  It's probably closer to .775 this year. You have to throw out the Reimold, Tatum, and Adams OPS numbers due to small sample.  But for everybody else, we are a third of the way through the season, so small sample/slumps/etc are no longer a valid excuse.  After today's 4-3 win over the Blue Jays in which the O's only scored 2 runs off a AA pitcher in 7 innings, I can no longer hold my tongue on how terrible the lineup is that Buck assembles for each game.

Listed below are some ideas for improving the O's lineup while looking towards the future:

1.  J.J. Hardy should be the leadoff hitter every night (unless he is getting a day off).  Buck seems to have adopted this idea, but I'm not so sure he will stick with it.  If it is a Hardy rest day, put Markakis leadoff.  It's time to accept the fact that Markakis is not an elite run producer (at least not for this year).  Maximize his ability to get on base with slap hits, walks, and the occasional double by removing the pressure to hit HRs.

2.  Stop batting Vlad cleanup!!  Based on OPS, he is the 6th best hitter among the regulars.  Scott or Wieters needs to bat cleanup.  I only need one stat to support this claim: Wieters bats .500 with RISP.  Enough said.

3.  Teach Wieters to play 1B.  This isn't happening this year, but it should be a point of emphasis for next year.  I would like to see him catch 4 days a week, play first once, and DH/Rest on the other.  We need to extend his career (see Mauer's injury problems = Wieters in 4 years).

4.  Find out what you have in Pie, Adams, and Reimold by playing them every game.  Giving them consistent at-bats will allow them to relax and not worry that an 0 for 4 or error will put them on the bench for a week.

My Proposed Lineups based on current OPS numbers:

 Against RHP:

1. Hardy SS
2. Markakis RF
3. Jones CF
4. Wieters C
5. Scott DH
6. Reynolds 3B
7. Lee 1B
8. Pie LF
9. Adams 2B

Against LHP:

1. Hardy SS
2. Markakis RF
3. Jones CF
4. Wieters C
5. Lee 1B
6. Reynolds 3B
7. Vlad DH
8. Andino 2B
9. Reimold LF

I don't think any of this will ever happen, but I can dream and state my opinions.  It's time for change.  Find a way to get rid of Vlad and Lee (and maybe Scott).  Take pennies on the dollar for Lee and Vlad, but you should get something decent back for Scott.  If we unload two of them, maybe we'll get the chance to see whether Pie and/or Reimold are everyday players.

Go O's!!

Reformat of Guido's Gripes

It's time for a reformat of Guido's Gripes.  In the past, I would gripe about anything that annoyed me.  Well, it seems as though this type thinking is not kosher.  Word of mouth led me to believe that I was offending certain, high-ranking, people with my "work gripes".  I quickly learned that my initial concept for Guido's Gripes was not going to prosper as a public blog since I was not endearing myself to various subgroups of the population.

In response, I decided to only allow my friends to view the blog.  It was fun for a time, but without a consistent and/or increasing fan base, the viewership of my blog posts was down to nearly zero.  I stopped blogging for over a year due to a lack of fan interest.

I feel re-energized and motivated, so I've decided to start blogging again with a new emphasis that is unlikely to anger the public.  This new inspiration/reformat will focus on my gripes of local sports teams.

I will always be a die-hard of my DMV teams and since they continually frustrate me with their losing ways, why not focus all of my passion into griping about how they disappoint me and their fans on a continual basis.  I don't doubt there will be some random gripes about non-sports annoyances every now and then, but writing about the disappointments I endure from being fan of the following DMV professional sports teams will always be priority #1:

Baltimore Orioles
Washington Wizards
Washington Redskins
Maryland Terps
Washington Capitals