Thursday, August 4, 2011

Buck Logic Failure #3: Over-Usage of Wieters

The title of this post is a little misleading, since the over-usage of Matt Wieters is not completely the fault of Buck Showalter.  Andy MacPhail has to shoulder some of the blame as well.  Before I tell you why I think MacPhail is to blame for Wieters' diminished plate production, look at Matt's troubling 2011 monthly splits:

Month GP AB AVG OPS wOBA wRC+
April 22 73 0.260 0.826 0.361 126
May 24 90 0.278 0.678 0.301 85
June 23 81 0.247 0.665 0.293 79
July 23 85 0.235 0.685 0.301 85

Wieters had a great April, but he has been steadily unproductive the past three months.  I blame this decreased production on Buck and MacPhail.  The lineup flexibiliity of the Orioles was eliminated once Vladimir Guerrero was signed during the off-season - this was a mistake by MacPhail and he should accept the blame. It took away any chance Buck had of resting position players while keeping their bat in the lineup.  Because of Vlad's inability to play the field, Buck can only get Wieters into the lineup at catcher.  The blame also falls on Buck because he has never benched Vlad in favor of a DH start for Wieters. 

Because Vlad plays every game, this is the situation:

Typical Starts by Position breakdown for Wieters WITH Vlad on the roster:
 
Wieters Slots w/Vlad Rest DH Catcher
7-Game Week 1 0 6
6-Game Week 1 0 5

This could be the situation (more rest for Wieters):

Hypothetical Starts by Position breakdown for Wieters WITHOUT Vlad on the roster:

Wieters Slots w/o Vlad Rest DH Catcher
7-Game Week 1 2 4
6-Game Week 1 1 4

So why does all this starts by position matter?  In my opinion, all of this catching is wearing Wieters down, which isn't surprising considering the Baltimore heat/humidity combination and the fact that Wieters is 6'5" (very tall for a catcher).  Besides April, Wieters really hasn't produced at the plate.  Now granted, he continues to field like a gold-glover each month, but the batting numbers are troubling.  Projections for the rest of the year are not likely to favor increased production at the plate. 

The root cause of this is Vlad.  Without Vlad on the roster, Buck would have been able to use Wieters at DH more in the beginning of the season, thus keeping his "legs" fresh for the last few months of the season.  Obviously, this is just my opinion based on some loose numbers, but the eye test hasn't been good either.  Wieters has looked tired and possibly a little lazy at the plate during the last few weeks, and I can't blame him considering the heavy work load.  He deserves more starts at DH or even an extra day or rest during parts of the season where the Orioles have limited days off.  There is no way to prove whether Wieters would be better with more rest, but I highly doubt the extra days off would hurt.  A OPS of around .750 (league-average) is possible, and if you combine that with his elite fielding, the Orioles have themselves one of the best catchers in MLB. 

The simple truth is that Wieters is being over-used and over-worked as catcher for no reason.  A team should not wear down one of it's best players during a losing season.  If the Orioles were fighting for a playoff spot, I would play Wieters 5 times a week at catcher, but that isn't the case here.  The season is lost, so please release or bench Vlad, and play DH Wieters at least twice a week in an effort to perverse the future.   

Side Note:  Some of you may want to discount this Wieters' rest theory by saying our backup catcher is bad and wouldn't have made up for Vlad sitting on the bench.  The numbers say otherwise.  Craig Tatum (O's backup catcher) has produced at the same level as Vlad, in 300 less at-bats.  Both players have a fWAR of 0.2, which is incredbile considering Tatum has played in 74 fewer games than Vlad.  I'd say the Orioles wasted 8 million dollars on Vlad while putting extra, undue stress on their franchise catcher during a wasted season. 

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