Monday, August 1, 2011

Buck Logic Failure #2: Manager Hypocrisy (Reimold & Davis)

Over the weekend, the Orioles traded away Koji for a back-of-the-rotation starter (Tommy Hunter) and a AAAA first-baseman (Chris Davis).  Nothing too significant or concerning about this trade in my mind.  Ultimately, I don't see this trade amounting to much in the future.  Probably will go down as a friendly gesture by the Orioles to help the Rangers playoff aspirations.  But then I saw the reports from Roch and Connolly explaining how the newly acquired first-baseman Chris Davis will receive regular at-bats at first-base and even some starts at third-base and in left-field through the rest of the season.  My immediate reaction was OUTRAGE.  I cannot understand why a manager would give extended playing time at multiple positions to newcomer Chris Davis, but not extend the same courtesy to the deserving, home-grown Nolan Reimold.

This is another example of #bucklogic:  Manager Hypocrisy

Advanced Statistics for Nolan Reimold and Chris Davis (via FanGraphs):

Career PA AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA wRC+ fWAR
Reimold 667 0.256 0.340 0.432 0.772 0.340 104 0.9
Davis 957 0.247 0.299 0.453 0.752 0.322 91 -0.1









2011 PA AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA wRC+ fWAR
Reimold 125 0.229 0.320 0.431 0.751 0.326 102 0.3
Davis 85 0.238 0.282 0.388 0.670 0.296 84 0.0









Age 25 Season PA AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA wRC+ fWAR
Reimold (2009) 411 0.279 0.365 0.466 0.831 0.365 118 1.2
Davis (2011) 85 0.238 0.282 0.388 0.670 0.296 84 0.0

At first glance, the Career numbers are making a case for Reimold being a better player.  The one caveat to this is that Reimold is three years older than Davis, and Reimold did not break into the major leagues until the age of 25*.  I believe Reimold has earned the right to play every game since he has generated 1.0 fWAR more than Davis in his career with 300 less plate appearances.  The disparity in production between the two players is even greater if you take out the 2010 season (fWAR of -0.6 in 131 PA) where Reimold was playing despite still rehabbing from Achilles' Tendon surgery.

*I'm not a huge believer in the wide-spread notion that players peak around the age of 27 and regress each proceeding year; Reimold is likely to disprove that theory.  

In regards to the 2011 numbers, few conclusions can be draw from small samples (Reimold has hit better this year).  These numbers, at the end of the season, will hopefully shed some light on the future output of Davis and Reimold as Baltimore Orioles.  Since Davis will playing everyday in the 5th spot and Reimold will continue to be benched about 3 days a week, I would project both Reimold and Davis to have around 325 plate appearances when season concludes in September.  Half of season's plate appearances (325) should help the Orioles identify whether these two players are major league caliber starters or bench-fodder.

I added the Age 25 Season numbers as a place-holder for future analysis.  Since 2011 is Davis's Age 25 Season, judgment will have to be withheld until the season is over.  I highly doubt Davis and his 0.0 WAR will be able to match Reimold's Age 25 Season output of 1.2 fWAR in the Orioles remaining 57 games.

So I ask again, why have Andy MacPhail and Buck Showalter deemed Chris Davis an everyday player and not Nolan Reimold?  It's a loaded question distorted by baseball politics, ignorance, misconceptions, and most importantly, Manager Hypocrisy.  Over their brief careers, the statistics bear the truth that Reimold has been the more productive player, yet he is treated like a replacement-level player by his manager.  I only ask one thing of Buck Showalter...

If you are going to play Chris Davis every game, then please play the more productive player, Nolan Reimold in every game as well.  In my opinion, it is the only fair outcome for the players.  Manager Hypocrisy is not a part of The Oriole Way and it will not be tolerated by this die-hard Orioles fan!! 

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