Plate Appearances and fWAR: Position Players

If you need a primer on fWAR, please visit the FanGraphs' Sabermetric Library entry for fWAR.  I highly recommend FanGraphs, as their Sabermetric Library contains detailed information on many other advanced baseball statistics. 

Listed below is the latest data I pulled from FanGraphs for the Orioles active position players (for games played through August 30, 2011): 

Player	PA	OBP	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR	fWAR(e): (PA/fWAR)*2
J.J. Hardy	453	0.315	0.831	0.355	121	3.6	252
Matt Wieters	456	0.329	0.760	0.333	106	3.4	268
Adam Jones	546	0.327	0.805	0.349	117	2.9	377
Nick Markakis	597	0.342	0.742	0.328	103	2.0	597
Nolan Reimold	221	0.308	0.728	0.316	95	0.6	737
Robert Andino	389	0.327	0.652	0.299	83	0.7	1111
Mark Reynolds	522	0.326	0.815	0.350	118	0.8	1305
Craig Tatum	72	0.286	0.567	0.260	56	0.1	1440
Matt Angle	21	0.190	0.348	0.181	2	-0.1	N/A
Vladimir Guerrero	471	0.306	0.695	0.304	86	-0.4	N/A
Jake Fox	58	0.276	0.683	0.299	83	-0.3	N/A
Ryan Adams	60	0.333	0.690	0.309	90	0.0	N/A

As if it wasn't apparent in my past posts, I'm a big fan/supporter of the fWAR statistic as a measurement for player production.  I wanted to take the statistic one level further though.  It may be a simple misunderstanding on my part, but fWAR does not appear to distinguish between a player with 600 plate appearance and one with 100 plate appearances.  I read the literature on fWAR and number of plate appearances seems to be inconsequential in the calculation, since it measures a player's contribution/production, not the quality/efficiency level of their play.

I developed a simple calculation that uses Plate Appearances in conjunction with fWAR to determine the quality/efficiency of a player's fWAR.  This metric, fWAR(e), determines how many plate appearances it takes for a player to achieve a league average fWAR of 2.0*.  As you can see from below (and in the table above), the equation is not complex and quite elementary: 

Equation Formula (abbreviated):   fWAR(e) = (PA/fWAR)*2   or 

Equation Formula (extended):  To calculate fWAR(e), divide the player's Plate Appearances by their fWAR, then multiple that number by league average fWAR (2)

Be advised, I'm not trying to change fWAR or create some great new statistic.  I'm not a math guru either, so take this all with a grain of salt.  Just trying to find new ways to look at the Orioles disappointing season and maybe find a silver lining for next season. 

Results:

• J.J. Hardy is the highest producing and most efficient position player on the Orioles roster.  His fWAR of 3.6 leads the team and his 252 fWAR(e) is the lowest/best.  To put his fWAR(e) in perspective, J.J. Hardy can contribute league average production to a team in about 252 plate appearances.
• Andino and Reynolds have not been efficient players in 2011.  They require over a season's worth of plate appearances to achieve league average production.
• Hardy, Wieters, and Jones are the only highly efficient position players on the Orioles roster.  Highly efficient meaning they will produce over league average in one season's worth of plate appearances (650 PA).
• Markakis is just barely above league average (required 600 PA to achieve league average fWAR of 2.0) and Reimold is just below the league average number.
• Vladimir Guerrero does not even contribute at a replacement level of 0.0 fWAR, so his fWAR(e) cannot be calculated.  His fWAR of -0.4 is pathetic and NEGATIVE!!**  Vlad was a waste of 8 million dollars. 

*League Average for fWAR varies by season, but 2.0 is a good standard for this simple experiment.  

**One of the fallacies of fWAR(e) is negative fWAR.  It destroys the equation - a real statistics guru could probably remedy this situation.  Bottom line though, if a player has a negative fWAR after at least 100 plate appearances, the player is unlikely to reach a league average 2.0 fWAR.

Reimold's Clutch Walk-Off Home Run

Orioles won last night 6-4 in 10 innings over the White Sox thanks to Nolan Reimold's Walk-Off Home Run.  Follow the link and savor the moment...

Reimold Walk-Off Home Run*

A nice win for the Orioles last night, so no complaints from me today.  Hopefully this is the start of a hot streak for Nolan. Looking forward to seeing Reimold and his team high clutch rate** of .95 in the lineup again tonight.

*It's unfortunate that MLB prevents one from embedding a game highlight on a blog.

**Clutch rate measures how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.  Next highest clutch rate on team is JJ Hardy at .47.

Buck Logic Failure #3: Over-Usage of Wieters

The title of this post is a little misleading, since the over-usage of Matt Wieters is not completely the fault of Buck Showalter.  Andy MacPhail has to shoulder some of the blame as well.  Before I tell you why I think MacPhail is to blame for Wieters' diminished plate production, look at Matt's troubling 2011 monthly splits:

Month	GP	AB	AVG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+
April	22	73	0.260	0.826	0.361	126
May	24	90	0.278	0.678	0.301	85
June	23	81	0.247	0.665	0.293	79
July	23	85	0.235	0.685	0.301	85

Wieters had a great April, but he has been steadily unproductive the past three months.  I blame this decreased production on Buck and MacPhail.  The lineup flexibiliity of the Orioles was eliminated once Vladimir Guerrero was signed during the off-season - this was a mistake by MacPhail and he should accept the blame. It took away any chance Buck had of resting position players while keeping their bat in the lineup.  Because of Vlad's inability to play the field, Buck can only get Wieters into the lineup at catcher.  The blame also falls on Buck because he has never benched Vlad in favor of a DH start for Wieters. 

Because Vlad plays every game, this is the situation:

Typical Starts by Position breakdown for Wieters WITH Vlad on the roster:
 

Wieters Slots w/Vlad	Rest	DH	Catcher
7-Game Week	1	0	6
6-Game Week	1	0	5

This could be the situation (more rest for Wieters):

Hypothetical Starts by Position breakdown for Wieters WITHOUT Vlad on the roster:

Wieters Slots w/o Vlad	Rest	DH	Catcher
7-Game Week	1	2	4
6-Game Week	1	1	4

So why does all this starts by position matter?  In my opinion, all of this catching is wearing Wieters down, which isn't surprising considering the Baltimore heat/humidity combination and the fact that Wieters is 6'5" (very tall for a catcher).  Besides April, Wieters really hasn't produced at the plate.  Now granted, he continues to field like a gold-glover each month, but the batting numbers are troubling.  Projections for the rest of the year are not likely to favor increased production at the plate. 

The root cause of this is Vlad.  Without Vlad on the roster, Buck would have been able to use Wieters at DH more in the beginning of the season, thus keeping his "legs" fresh for the last few months of the season.  Obviously, this is just my opinion based on some loose numbers, but the eye test hasn't been good either.  Wieters has looked tired and possibly a little lazy at the plate during the last few weeks, and I can't blame him considering the heavy work load.  He deserves more starts at DH or even an extra day or rest during parts of the season where the Orioles have limited days off.  There is no way to prove whether Wieters would be better with more rest, but I highly doubt the extra days off would hurt.  A OPS of around .750 (league-average) is possible, and if you combine that with his elite fielding, the Orioles have themselves one of the best catchers in MLB. 

The simple truth is that Wieters is being over-used and over-worked as catcher for no reason.  A team should not wear down one of it's best players during a losing season.  If the Orioles were fighting for a playoff spot, I would play Wieters 5 times a week at catcher, but that isn't the case here.  The season is lost, so please release or bench Vlad, and play DH Wieters at least twice a week in an effort to perverse the future.   

Side Note:  Some of you may want to discount this Wieters' rest theory by saying our backup catcher is bad and wouldn't have made up for Vlad sitting on the bench.  The numbers say otherwise.  Craig Tatum (O's backup catcher) has produced at the same level as Vlad, in 300 less at-bats.  Both players have a fWAR of 0.2, which is incredbile considering Tatum has played in 74 fewer games than Vlad.  I'd say the Orioles wasted 8 million dollars on Vlad while putting extra, undue stress on their franchise catcher during a wasted season. 

Buck Logic Failure #2: Manager Hypocrisy (Reimold & Davis)

Over the weekend, the Orioles traded away Koji for a back-of-the-rotation starter (Tommy Hunter) and a AAAA first-baseman (Chris Davis).  Nothing too significant or concerning about this trade in my mind.  Ultimately, I don't see this trade amounting to much in the future.  Probably will go down as a friendly gesture by the Orioles to help the Rangers playoff aspirations.  But then I saw the reports from Roch and Connolly explaining how the newly acquired first-baseman Chris Davis will receive regular at-bats at first-base and even some starts at third-base and in left-field through the rest of the season.  My immediate reaction was OUTRAGE.  I cannot understand why a manager would give extended playing time at multiple positions to newcomer Chris Davis, but not extend the same courtesy to the deserving, home-grown Nolan Reimold.

This is another example of #bucklogic:  Manager Hypocrisy

Advanced Statistics for Nolan Reimold and Chris Davis (via FanGraphs):

Career	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Reimold	667	0.256	0.340	0.432	0.772	0.340	104	0.9
Davis	957	0.247	0.299	0.453	0.752	0.322	91	-0.1
2011	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Reimold	125	0.229	0.320	0.431	0.751	0.326	102	0.3
Davis	85	0.238	0.282	0.388	0.670	0.296	84	0.0
Age 25 Season	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+	fWAR
Reimold (2009)	411	0.279	0.365	0.466	0.831	0.365	118	1.2
Davis (2011)	85	0.238	0.282	0.388	0.670	0.296	84	0.0

At first glance, the Career numbers are making a case for Reimold being a better player.  The one caveat to this is that Reimold is three years older than Davis, and Reimold did not break into the major leagues until the age of 25*.  I believe Reimold has earned the right to play every game since he has generated 1.0 fWAR more than Davis in his career with 300 less plate appearances.  The disparity in production between the two players is even greater if you take out the 2010 season (fWAR of -0.6 in 131 PA) where Reimold was playing despite still rehabbing from Achilles' Tendon surgery.

*I'm not a huge believer in the wide-spread notion that players peak around the age of 27 and regress each proceeding year; Reimold is likely to disprove that theory.  

In regards to the 2011 numbers, few conclusions can be draw from small samples (Reimold has hit better this year).  These numbers, at the end of the season, will hopefully shed some light on the future output of Davis and Reimold as Baltimore Orioles.  Since Davis will playing everyday in the 5th spot and Reimold will continue to be benched about 3 days a week, I would project both Reimold and Davis to have around 325 plate appearances when season concludes in September.  Half of season's plate appearances (325) should help the Orioles identify whether these two players are major league caliber starters or bench-fodder.

I added the Age 25 Season numbers as a place-holder for future analysis.  Since 2011 is Davis's Age 25 Season, judgment will have to be withheld until the season is over.  I highly doubt Davis and his 0.0 WAR will be able to match Reimold's Age 25 Season output of 1.2 fWAR in the Orioles remaining 57 games.

So I ask again, why have Andy MacPhail and Buck Showalter deemed Chris Davis an everyday player and not Nolan Reimold?  It's a loaded question distorted by baseball politics, ignorance, misconceptions, and most importantly, Manager Hypocrisy.  Over their brief careers, the statistics bear the truth that Reimold has been the more productive player, yet he is treated like a replacement-level player by his manager.  I only ask one thing of Buck Showalter...

If you are going to play Chris Davis every game, then please play the more productive player, Nolan Reimold in every game as well.  In my opinion, it is the only fair outcome for the players.  Manager Hypocrisy is not a part of The Oriole Way and it will not be tolerated by this die-hard Orioles fan!!