Batting Order Discussion: Leadoff Hitter

What makes a MLB player a "great" leadoff hitter?  I use quotations around the word "great" because there are varing opinions out there as to what a leadoff hitter should be.  Listed below are statements that I typically hear from casual baseball fans when they talk about the qualities of a "great" leadoff hitter:

• Leadoff hitter must be fast.
• Leadoff hitter is not a power hitter.
• Leadoff hitter has a high batting average.

I bring this topic up because the Orioles have an ongoing leadoff hitter debate...since Brian Roberts is probably going to be MIA for awhile.  Multiple opinions exist out there in the blog world about who the Orioles opening day leadoff hitter should be in 2012 and I would like to have my opinion documented as well (with statistical justification).  In my next post, I will share my opinion on the subject, but today, I want to attempt to debunk the three "great" leadoff hitter statements I mentioned above...

Leadoff hitter must be fast.

In my opinion, must be fast is the weakest reason one could have for wanting a player in the leadoff spot.  I'll concede that it is important for a leadoff to have some speed, but I don't believe that they need to be fast or have elite speed to help the team win.  Granted, it's never good to have a really fast player bat behind a really slow player.  But then again, there's only 90 feet between bases, so the chances of the fast player catching the slow player are pretty slim if you consider all factors.  One can actually quantify the speed of an individual player with a stopwatch, but that metric does not measure the player's ability to help the team win.  Ultimately, I feel as though the "must be fast to be a leadoff hitter" statement should be ignored because it is not speed alone that gets a player on-base, it's a combination of many things; hits and walks are the first things that come to mind.

Leadoff hitter is not a power hitter.

This one is very easy debunk.  I give you the names, home run totals, and stolen base totals of leadoff hitters for three playoff-caliber MLB teams in 2011...

Jacoby Ellsbury: 32 HRs, 39 SBs
Jimmy Rollins:  16 HRs, 30 SBs
Ian Kinsler:  32 HRs, 30 SBs

I know it's hard for some fans to process this, but it's okay for a leadoff hitter to have power.  All three of these players excel at getting on-base, stealing bases, and creating runs.  Just because they have power doesn't mean they shouldn't be the leadoff hitter - I see it was a bonus.  They play for three high-quality teams that consistently win games, so "wasting those home runs" (as people tend to say) in the leadoff spot does not seem to be hurting those teams in the most important column: the win column.

Leadoff hitter has a high batting average.

This one is a little tricky.  The best leadoff hitters in MLB usually have a high batting average (AVG), but in my opinion, the player's on-base percentage (OBP) and wOBA is the more releveant statistic.  I'm not saying a leadoff hitter shouldn't or can't have a high batting average.  I'm just saying that OBP and wOBA are better predictors of whether a player will be more beneficial to their team in the leadoff spot.  Which of these two players is the better leadoff hitter in your mind?

Player A: .255 AVG in 2011
Player B:  .297 AVG in 2011

If AVG was the only information you were given, you would have to pick Player B.  No brainer.  And this is why I have a problem with fans stating that a leadoff hitter should have a high batting average.  Batting average only tells one part of the story and fans need to start looking beyond that limited statistic if they want to truly understand the modern game of baseball.  Player A is Derek Jeter.  Player B is Ian Kinsler.  Both ended 2011 with a .355 OBP, so in my opinion, they are both performing the job (getting on-base) of a leadoff hitter at the same level.  The wOBA statistis takes the numbers to a new level and measures a hitter's total offensive value.  See FanGraphs for the real and detailed explanation of wOBA.  Kinsler had a wOBA of .370 and Jeter a .332 wOBA.  It is clear that Kinsler was a more productive and efficient leadoff hitter despite his .255 AVG.  I envision a future where televised baseball games no longer display or speak of batting average.  Probably never going to happen in my lifetime.

In my next post, I will divulge and justify my pick for the Orioles opening day leadoff hitter...

Any guesses?

For any Wizards fans viewing this page...go check out my good friend's new blog (he's more consistent with posting than me) ... Live From the Phone Booth