Orioles Lead-Off Hitter: Nick Markakis

My last post detailed the problems with the traditional idea of a lead-off hitter.  I reserved my opinion on who I thought should be the Orioles' lead-off until now so I would have some 2012 data* to back up my claims.

*The Orioles have only played 14 games as of today, so this sample is probably a little small.  100 plate appearances is preferable, but data from 2011 can be used to validate any small sample size issues. I'll try to revisit after the Orioles have played 25 and 50 games.

My opinion is that the lead-off hitter should be the team's most proficient player at getting on-base.  In statistical terms, that would be the player with the highest on-base percentage (OBP).  For my selection of the Orioles lead-off hitter, I will use prior year data** for justification.

**Current year could, and probably should be used after 25 games.

Without any further ado, I give you my pick for the Orioles' everyday lead-off hitter: Nick Markakis.  Probably not much of a shocker to those of you that follow the Orioles on a daily basis.  It just makes visual (actually watching the games) and statistical (not just AVG, HRs, and RBIs) sense...

Visual: For all of 2011 and most of 2012, Markakis has made a habit of lacing singles to left field when pitched away.  He does this without regard for the current game situation.  It doesn't matter if the bases are empty in the 1st inning or if there is a man on first with two outs in the 9th inning and the Orioles are down by one, Markakis will try to slap the outside pitch to left field for a single.  The opposing pitchers know he does this and will continue to pitch him on the outside corner to avoid having Markakis get an extra-base hit.  So what does all of that mean?  It means that Markakis should not be batting 3rd in the Orioles lineup.  The 3rd spot is generally reserved for the team's most productive player at creating runs (wRC+), which is not Markakis on the Orioles.  Enough of my opinions, here are the numbers:

	2011			2012*
Typical Lineup	OBP	wOBA	wRC+	OBP	wOBA	wRC+
Reimold	.328	.341	112	.383	.500	217
Hardy	.310	.343	113	.283	.288	76
Markakis	.351	.334	107	.323	.317	95
Jones	.319	.339	110	.333	.416	161
Wieters	.328	.339	110	.380	.412	159
Betemit	.343	.340	112	.171	.218	29
Reynolds	.323	.348	116	.286	.241	45
Davis	.305	.309	89	.348	.371	131
Andino	.327	.305	87	.321	.325	100

*As of April 21st

Markakis was clearly the Orioles most proficient player at getting on-base in 2011, but his 2011 wOBA and wRC+ would be in the bottom 3rd of the Orioles 2012 typical lineup.  A high OBP player that has a low wOBA and WRC+ should not be hitting in the 3rd spot.  Markakis was average (at best) at producing runs in 2011 (wRC+ of 107) and the trend is continuing in 2012 (wRC+ of 95).  The Orioles need to accept the fact that Markakis is not a run producer.

The best way to use Markakis is to put him in the lead-off spot and maximum his talent for getting on-base (since a lead-off hitters primary job is to get on-base).  His OBP is down a little in 2012, but 14 games is a small sample, so I will not judge him yet.  It's likely he'll have the top OBP on the Orioles by the end of the year.

Memo to the Orioles Management: Force Buck to put Markakis in the lead-off spot and get over the fact that you gave Markakis too much money.  It's time to make the best of an expensive contract. Speaking of bad contracts, please release Kevin Gregg while you are at it.

Added Discussion:
See below for my proposed 2012 Orioles lineup.  Let me know what you think.  I don't think there is one right answer for the Orioles lineup (except that Markakis should be leading off in all of them).

Based on 2011 end of year statistics (and the 14 games in 2012), this is the starting lineup I would like to see in 90% of the Orioles games...

Markakis

Jones

Hardy

Wieters

Reimold

Davis

Reynolds

Betemit

Andino