In an effort to conclude this project quickly with a usable outcome, I compiled the data for four of the major NFL team statistics from 1999-2008. Trends discovered from the compiled data were used to eliminate teams from SuperBowl contention in 2009. See below for a results breakdown:
Team Predictor - Results (see Part A - Turnover Difference)Eliminated Teams: Panthers, Browns, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Raiders, Jaguars, Rams, Titans, Redskins, Cardinals, and Steelers
Defense Predictor - Results
If a team's defense allows less than 110 rushing yards per game, they are considered better than average. An average defensive team gives up between 110 and 125 rushing yards per game. 90% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average rushing defense from 1999-2008. Teams that have allowed over 125 rushing yards per game in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.
Eliminated Teams: Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Bucs
Offense #1 Predictor - Results
If a team's offense gains more than 125 rushing yards per game, they are considered better than average. An average offensive team gains between 110 and 125 rushing yards per game. 90% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average rushing offense from 1999-2008. Teams that have averaged less than 110 rushing yards gained per game in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.
Eliminated Teams: Texans, Colts, Seahawks
Offense #2 Predictor - Results
If a team converts over 45% of their 3rd down attempts on offense, they are considered better than average. An average offensive team converts between 40 and 45 percent of their 3rd down attempts on offense. 70% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average 3rd down success on offense from 1999-2008. Teams that have converted less than 40% of their 3rd down attempts on offense in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.
Eliminated Teams: Broncos, Jets, Eagles
3nd Tier SuperBowl Contenders:
(medium probability to make playoffs, low probability to make SuperBowl) Falcons, Cowboys, and Giants
2nd Tier SuperBowl Contenders:
(high probability to make playoffs, medium probability to make SuperBowl)Packers, Patriots, Ravens, and Bengals
1st Tier SuperBowl Contenders:
(guaranteed playoffs, high probability to make SuperBowl) Vikings and Saints*
*I realize they are both in the same conference, but they are currently the two most dominant teams in the NFL. There is a very high probability that one of these teams will be in the SuperBowl. Next Gripe Project...Best Team in NFL History - 1983 Redskins?!?!...