Project #2: Part B - Super Bowl Contenders

In an effort to conclude this project quickly with a usable outcome, I compiled the data for four of the major NFL team statistics from 1999-2008.  Trends discovered from the compiled data were used to eliminate teams from SuperBowl contention in 2009.  See below for a results breakdown:

Team Predictor - Results (see Part A - Turnover Difference)

Eliminated Teams: Panthers, Browns, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Raiders, Jaguars, Rams, Titans, Redskins, Cardinals, and Steelers

Defense Predictor - Results

If a team's defense allows less than 110 rushing yards per game, they are considered better than average.  An average defensive team gives up between 110 and 125 rushing yards per game.  90% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average rushing defense from 1999-2008.  Teams that have allowed over 125 rushing yards per game in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.

Eliminated Teams:  Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Bucs

Offense #1 Predictor - Results

If a team's offense gains more than 125 rushing yards per game, they are considered better than average.  An average offensive team gains between 110 and 125 rushing yards per game.  90% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average rushing offense from 1999-2008.  Teams that have averaged less than 110 rushing yards gained per game in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.

Eliminated Teams:  Texans, Colts, Seahawks

Offense #2 Predictor - Results

If a team converts over 45% of their 3rd down attempts on offense, they are considered better than average.  An average offensive team converts between 40 and 45 percent of their 3rd down attempts on offense.  70% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average 3rd down success on offense from 1999-2008.  Teams that have converted less than 40% of their 3rd down attempts on offense in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.

Eliminated Teams:  Broncos, Jets, Eagles

3nd Tier SuperBowl Contenders:  

(medium probability to make playoffs, low probability to make SuperBowl)
Falcons, Cowboys, and Giants

2nd Tier SuperBowl Contenders:  

(high probability to make playoffs, medium probability to make SuperBowl)
Packers, Patriots, Ravens, and Bengals

1st Tier SuperBowl Contenders:

(guaranteed playoffs, high probability to make SuperBowl)
Vikings and Saints*

*I realize they are both in the same conference, but they are currently the two most dominant teams in the NFL.  There is a very high probability that one of these teams will be in the SuperBowl. 

Next Gripe Project...Best Team in NFL History - 1983 Redskins?!?!...