Tuesday, May 29, 2012

The Reim-Time Timeline: Rebuttal

Before reading this post, please check out The Reim-Time Timeline article by Zach Wilt over at BaltimoreSportsReport.com (@BalSportsReport).  This post is a rebuttal to the evidence he provided to support his claim that Reimold can not stay healthy enough to hold a roster spot.
 
       Games Games  Games Missed
Time Frames      on O's^ Missed  Due to Injury*
Sept 18th to Oct 4th, 2009         16 16        16
April 7th to Sept 1st, 2010         33 4         0
Sept 1st to Oct 1st, 2010         30 17         0
April 1st to May 20th, 2011          0 0         0
May 20th to Sept 28th, 2011        120 32         5
^games on Orioles 25 man roster
*based on research from online sources
  
September 18th to October 4th, 2009:

I would not count these "games missed" against Reimold.  The key point to remember here is that the Orioles shut him down.  The season was essentially over (since all the Orioles were trying to do was not lose 100 games).  It was better to get Reimold into surgery to repair the Achilles Tendon, rather than play 16 meaningless games.  He had already proven he could be a valuable MLB player, as he was leading all AL rookies in homers, on-base percentage (.365), slugging percentage (.466), walks (47) and total bases (167).

April 7th to September 1st, 2010:

Recovery time for a torn Achilles' Tendon ranges from 6 to 12 weeks, but rehabilitation back to 100% strength usually takes at least a year.  I think Reimold, as well as the Orioles, rushed him back.  There are certain injuries that must be dealt with in a more cautious manner.  Tommy John surgery is one of the injuries that comes to mind when talking about pitchers.

When it is determined that a pitcher needs Tommy John surgery, the team has to accept the loss of that player for an entire year. The recovery and rehabilitation from this major surgery can be slow and tedious.  Major League Baseball teams do not rush pitchers back that have had Tommy John surgery.  When pitchers are ready to come back from Tommy John surgery, their inning and pitch counts are limited while being increased incrementally over a full season.  Their progress is moderated closely by training staffs as to avoid overwork and stress.

My opinion is that an Achilles' Tendon surgery should be the same category as Tommy John surgery.  If one puts Achilles' Tendon in that category, then Reimold should not have been playing every game immediately.  An incremental increase in number of games played would have put Reimold back at 100% in September of 2010.  Orioles should have accepted that he would not be 100% healthy until September.  Yes, it is an injury, but it was a nasty one just like a pitcher tearing an elbow ligament, and most wouldn't hold it against a pitcher if they missed a year due to it.

September 1st to October 1st, 2010:

Reimold played 10 games over 35 days.  There were some good games in there, but the lack of playing time did not provide Reimold with many opportunities to showcase his skills.  It should also be noted that 10 games is an extremely small sample - no judgement should be made based on 33 at-bats.

April 1st to May 20th, 2011:

Reimold was sent to Norfolk due to the fact that he had one option left and Felix Pie did not have any options left.  If my memory serves me correctly, both Reimold and Pie had underwhelming spring training numbers.  I have never put a lot of faith in spring training numbers.  Most teams are experiencing with all types of pitchers during spring training games.  And many position players are working to improve skills such as bunting, hitting opposite field, etc during split-squad games.  Reimold's demotion to the AAA Norfolk Tides after spring training was a business decision.  There were no injury concerns or problems for Reimold at the end of spring training. 

May 20th to Sept 28th, 2011:

My research (and watching games) shows that only a handful of these games were due to injury.  The rest of the games missed were the result of the manager's decision (#bucklogic) to play inferior players over Reimold (despite his consistent OPS above .800 for most of the season). 

Final Rebuttal Thoughts:

Even though it may seem like Reimold has missed a lot of playing time, very few of the missed games were the result of injury.  This neck problem is the first injury that has caused him to a miss significant number of games*.  If Reimold comes back from this neck issue by the middle of June and continues to produce at a high level for the rest of the 2012 season, then I will consider his recovery a win-win for the fans and the games he missed will be a small price to pay for long term success.  If he gets injured again and misses another 30 games, then I will start to agree with Zach about Reimold's inability to stay heathly long enough to hold a spot.

*Reimold played throughout 2010 (in almost every game) for the Norfolk Tides even though the Orioles should have been more cautious while he rehabilitated from Achilles Tendon surgery. 

The Real Issue:

Currently, the point could made that Reimold needs to be more consistent.  He has had flashes of great play (2011) and spans of terrible play (2010).  I point to his great play during the second half of 2011 as reflection of his potential and a sign that his play will continue to improve.  He produced a 1.5 WAR in 87 games played and had one of the most clutch hits in Orioles history in Game 162. 

My outlook for his 2012 season was very optimistic.  I still have high hopes for the rest of his 2012 season.  He started off the season at a very high level and had already produced 0.6 WAR in 16 games.  The man has battled back from terrible injuries in past and suspect he will beat this neck problem as well.  I still believe that the Orioles need Reimold every game at an above-average level if they want to have a chance at the playoffs in 2012.

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