Starting Rotations (IP/GS): 2011 vs 2012 Orioles

Through 37 games of the season, it appears that the Orioles' starting rotation is substantially better than the 2011 version.  How much better? I'm not totally sure, but there is one pitching metric where improvement is undeniable: IP/GS (innings pitched per start)

2012 Orioles Starting Pitchers	GS	IP	IP/GS
Jason Hammel	7	43.2	6.2
Wei-Yin Chen	7	44.0	6.3
Jake Arrieta	8	48.1	6.0
Brian Matusz	7	37.2	5.3
Tommy Hunter	7	42.0	6.0
Dana Eveland	1	6.0	6.0
2012 Orioles Rotation (current totals)	37	220.5	6.0
2012 Orioles Rotation (projected totals*)	162	965.4	6.0
2011 Top 5** AL Rotations (based on R/G)	162	1014.1	6.3
2011 Orioles Starting Rotation	162	874.8	5.4

*Projected based on the premise that the production level from the first 37 games is maintained for the entire season.
**Rays, Angels, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers had the Top 5 starting rotations based on runs scored against per game.  4 of those 5 made the playoffs.

The starting rotation of the 2011 Orioles was not good in the IP/GS category:

• In 2011, the Top 5 rotations in the AL managed to record an average of 19 outs per start (6 innings, one out).

• In 2011, the Orioles starting rotation managed to record an average of 16 outs per start (5 innings, one out)
• an entire inning less than the contenders 
• 140 more innings thrown by the Orioles bullpen than the bullpens of the Top 5 starting rotations (average)
•  the equivalent of 15 complete games

The starting rotation of the 2012 Orioles has been slightly above average in the IP/GS category:

•  The Top 5 rotations in the AL have managed to record an average of 19 outs per start (6 innings, one out).
• The Orioles' starting rotation through 37 games in 2012 is averaging 18 outs per start (6 innings).
• 2/3 of an inning more per game than in 2011.
• 90 less innings thrown by the bullpen than in 2011.
• the equivalent of  10 complete games

This is a great reason for Orioles' fans to remain optimistic about the rest of the season.  If the Orioles' starting pitchers continue to average 6 innings per start*, the bullpen will have to be relied on less than in previous years, thus reducing the number of innings being thrown.  Less innings for the bullpen means it is more likely they will maintain their current (best in MLB) level of production.  The formula for continued success by the Orioles is quite simple: starters pitch deeper into games and bullpen wear & tear, and exposure becomes a non-issue.  Average defense and a little higher OBP by the position players wouldn't hurt either, but that's another discussion entirely.

*also going with the general assumption that the starting pitchers are allowing less runs and pitching more efficiently if they are pitching into the 7th inning.

I would have even more confidence in the Orioles' playoff hopes if the IP/GS was a little higher.  I'm hoping the return of Zach Britton will bring the rotation up to an elite level (6.1-6.2 range) in the IP/GS statistic.

Hoping for the best, expecting the worse, but this starting rotation has an opportunity to maintain respectability and could surprise the MLB community even more as the dog days of summer approach.

I'll continue to say it until it becomes untrue...

This Orioles team is different...they know how to win and expect to win every game.