Strength of Schedule (Orioles): 2005 vs 2012

Lots of talk in the twitter world about how the Orioles fan base should stay calm and not get overly excited about their good play through the first quarter of the season.  I was trying to find a way to justify that this Orioles team is not like the 2005 team that went 25-13 through their first 38 games. 

I started to consider the Orioles opponents thus far in the 2012 season to date and it feels like the Orioles have played a lot of games against high quality opponents (Texas, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays).  I pulled the records of the 2005 Orioles' opponents through the first 38 games of the 2005 season as a starting point and compiled the results to generate a Strength of Schedule (SOS) factor:
 

2005	Games	Wins	Loses	% of Games Agst	Opp Winning %	Factor*
yankees	6	21	19	0.16	0.53	0.0829
devil rays	6	14	26	0.16	0.35	0.0553
blue jays	6	21	18	0.16	0.54	0.0850
red sox	4	23	16	0.11	0.59	0.0621
royals	4	11	28	0.11	0.28	0.0297
white sox	4	28	12	0.11	0.70	0.0737
oakland	3	15	24	0.08	0.38	0.0304
twins	3	21	16	0.08	0.57	0.0448
tigers	2	18	19	0.05	0.49	0.0256
Totals/Avgs	38	19.1	19.8	1.00	0.49	0.4894

*Factor is the % of Games Against divided by the Opponent Winning % (basic SOS).  Please correct me if I have over-simplified this calculation. 

If my math is correct, the 2005 Orioles Strength of Schedule through 38 games was .4894. 

I pulled the same data for the 2012 Orioles, and to my enjoyment, I learned that they have played a slightly more difficult schedule than the 2005 Orioles after 38 games:

2012	Games	Wins	Loses	% of Games Agst	Opp Winning %	Factor*
yankees	8	20	17	0.21	0.54	0.1138
blue jays	6	20	18	0.16	0.53	0.0831
white sox	4	17	21	0.11	0.45	0.0471
rangers	4	24	14	0.11	0.63	0.0665
oakland	3	19	19	0.08	0.50	0.0395
rays	3	24	14	0.08	0.63	0.0499
red sox	3	17	20	0.08	0.46	0.0363
twins	3	11	26	0.08	0.30	0.0235
angels	3	17	21	0.08	0.45	0.0353
royals	1	15	21	0.03	0.42	0.0110
Totals/Avgs	38	18.4	19.1	1.00	0.49	0.5058

After 38 games, the 2012 Orioles Strength of Schedule is .5058. 

How much better is .5058 than .4894?  Probably not that much, but it is nice to see that the numbers do show (even if only slightly) that the Orioles have played a tougher schedule after 38 games than the 2005 Orioles.  As a viewer, it sure has felt like the Orioles were playing a great opponent every night. 

This small finding is another reason to be optimistic as the season goes forward.  The Orioles know they can compete and beat the best teams in the American League.  Let's just hope it continues all summer long.