Happy Birthday Laura!!

Today is too perfect for griping!!

Just a special Happy Birthday message to my wonderful wife...

Happy Birthday Laura!!  

I hope you have a great day!!

Poll #1 - 1985 Bears...best ever by the numbers

I feel as though I have come up with a fairly simple methodology for figuring out the best team in NFL history.  My hope is that it does not come off as too complicated.  The basic premise is to pick a handful of NFL team statistics, average the statistics to a percentage, and average those percentages to one overall power value.

Here are the 5 quantitative factors I used to determine the best team in NFL history, with the 1985 Bears used as the primary example.

1.  Wins from Average
- number of games played per team divided by two -
Example: 15(Bears total wins) - 8(average NFL team wins)= 7

2.  Turnover Differential 
- takeaways minus giveaways -
Example: +23

3.  Offensive Yards Per Game from Average
- team average offensive yards per game minus average NFL team yards per game -
Example:  365 (Bears average yards per game) - 329 (NFL average team) = 35

4.  Defensive Yards Per Game from Average -
- team average defensive yards per game minus average NFL team yards per game -
Example: 329 (NFL average team) - 258 (Bears average yards per game) = 71

5.  Average Margin of Victory
- number of points scored minus number points allowed divided by number of games -
Example: 456 (points scored) - 198 (points allowed) / 16 (games played) = 16.13

After I inputted all of the data from the SuperBowl winners and losers for these 5 factors, I realize that each factor did not carry an equal weight.  Each factor was given a 100% maximum possibility based on historic data.  Each team was then given a percentage based on that maximum possibility:

Maximums (1985 Bears %)
1.  Wins from Average - 8 (7/8=88%)
2.  Turnover Differential - 30 (23/30=77%)
3.  Offensive Yards Per Game from Average- 100 (35/100=35%)
4.  Defensive Yards per Game from Average - 100 (71/100=71%)
5.  Average Margin of Victory - 20 (16.13/20=81%)

The average of these five percentages represent a team's Power Quotient:

1. 1985 Bears - 70.24% = ( 88+77+35+71+81 / 5 )
2.  1972 Dolphins - 69.63%
3.  1983 Redskins - 67.66%*
4.  2007 Patriots - 64.22%*
5.  1991 Redskins - 61.41%
*did not win SuperBowl 

See the results file to view the Power Quotients' for all of the past SuperBowl Winners and Losers.
The full data/results file will be located in the Documents Box^ (right side of blog). 
^I will be updating this file periodically with results and data for every NFL team by year.

Poll #1 - Best Team in NFL History?

I stumbled upon the above YouTube clip of Joe Theismann and John Riggins' discussion of the current Redskins about three weeks ago.  Theismann stating that the 1983 Redskins were the best team in NFL history (even though they didn't win the SuperBowl that year) got me thinking about some of the greatest teams in NFL history.  Most of the great teams were SuperBowl winners, but is it possible for a team to be considered the best ever if they were not even the best team during one particular year?  I guess the quick counter would be that the best team does not always win the SuperBowl in a given year. 

I've devised a simple formula that uses basic NFL game statistics to calculate which team should be considered the best ever...and I'll share it in my next post.

But before I share my simple methodology (remember: advanced methods are a waste of time), I'd like to know which team is the best ever in your mind...

My guess for the best team in NFL history before looking at historical NFL statistics was the 2007 Patriots.

In your opinion, which team was the best ever?

Social Gripe #3: Egocentrics - Part C: In Public

In Public - in such a way as to be visible to the scrutiny of the people, such as malls, gas stations, restaurants, hotels, etc...

Any human-being that has disturbed, inconvenienced, or bothered you in any manner while in a public setting would be considered Egocentric.  Egocentrics are highly visible to the common bystander and tend to make themselves visible even during your dullest state of mind (day-dreaming for instance).  I want to share with you some Egocentrics types that I have had past experiences with In Public:

1.  Space Hogs:  These people will always be in your way when you are walking through malls/stores/places with limited walking space.  I'm not sure what their problem is, but they insist upon taking up as much room as possible and they will always make you move drastically to avoid bumping into their sprawling body.   
Future Goal:  Ram into a Space Hog intentionally in an attempt to bruise their body and their precious ego.

2.  Cellular-Beings:  These are people who love their cell phone more than actual human beings.  There seems to be one of these people in every group, but you probably don't realize they exist.  You want to know why?  Their constant talking, texting, sexting, pexting means you never get to interact with them even though they are physically next to you (they just don't exist mentally around you).  
Future Goal:  Take a Cellular-Beings cell phone extra appendage and smash it into a million pieces.

3.  Parchment and Quill Users:  At one time or another, you have probably had to deal with these people in a store - they are ones that waste your time by continuing to use the outdated method of CHECKS.  The extreme Parchment and Quill Users have the nerve to write CHECKS in the Express Lanes.  These people must have never been told that Debit Cards do the same thing as CHECKS, but in a lot less time.   
Future Goal:  As a Parchment and Quill User is wasting my time in a store line, I will pry the checkbook from their stupid, inconsiderate hands and light it on FIRE!!

4.  Loud-Toothers:  These people think they are so important and cool because of their cell phone blue-tooth earpiece.  Their coolness means that everybody else around them needs to hear their whole cell phone conversation.  It is very confusing and awkward at first when you see a person talking to themselves in a public place because you can't tell whether they are talking to you or just plain crazy.  Moments later, however, you look at their ear and realize they are a Loud-Toother - instant relief (this situation is unfair to the rest of us that aren't as cool douchey as you).   
Future Goal:  Stare a complete Loud-Toother stranger straight in the face and ask them multiple questions as they are talking on their blue-tooth.

5.  Indecent Exhibitionists:  Public Displays of Affection or PDA are allowable to a certain extent - eating-face or groping would be considered a Indecent Exhibitionist act in my book.  The Indecent Exhibitionists usually find the most central and public location for their extreme PDA.  The most distributing part is that the worst and highest occurring cases of PDA are usually being performed by abnormal characters - examples include the creepy, damaged, and unstable types (use your own imagination if you dare).   
Future Goal:  Block a set of Indecent Exhibitionists from the public view by placing a big cardboard box over them.

Road Rage #6: Arrogant, Stupid, or Selfish?

Stick-Family Sticker Users

I don't care about your family, and I would venture to say that most of the people driving around you don't either.  Please remove these stickers from the back of your car.  In all likelihood, they represent more of how fake your family is on a daily basis, rather than how perfect or "nuclear" your family is in your warpped mind.

Simple Message: Lose the Douche-Bag Stickers!!

The Morning Sprinters of Silver Hill Road

Many residents of Suitland, MD use the metro as their primary method of transportation - all well and good.  But the problem is that these metro users insist upon walking to the Suitland Metro Station in the morning by crossing Silver Hill Road without using crosswalks or lighted intersections.  There have been numerous occasions when I was very close to hitting one of these pedestrians sprinters (morning darkness makes it very difficult to see them) - nobody needs/wants hitting a pedestrian on their conscience.   

What makes the situation worse is that I when I went to look for a picture of this stupidity in action, it was on clear display in Google-Map's street-view picture (see below) of Silver Hill Road at the Suitland Metro.  You don't even want to get me started on the fact that CHILDREN (as seen below) are usually accompanying them during this illegal activity!!

Simple Message:  Use the Crosswalks!! 
***Crosswalks appear every 200 yards on Silver Hill Road.

What's your opinion of the Stick-Family Stickers and The Morning Sprinters?

Project #2: Part B - Super Bowl Contenders

In an effort to conclude this project quickly with a usable outcome, I compiled the data for four of the major NFL team statistics from 1999-2008.  Trends discovered from the compiled data were used to eliminate teams from SuperBowl contention in 2009.  See below for a results breakdown:

Team Predictor - Results (see Part A - Turnover Difference)

Eliminated Teams: Panthers, Browns, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Raiders, Jaguars, Rams, Titans, Redskins, Cardinals, and Steelers

Defense Predictor - Results

If a team's defense allows less than 110 rushing yards per game, they are considered better than average.  An average defensive team gives up between 110 and 125 rushing yards per game.  90% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average rushing defense from 1999-2008.  Teams that have allowed over 125 rushing yards per game in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.

Eliminated Teams:  Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Bucs

Offense #1 Predictor - Results

If a team's offense gains more than 125 rushing yards per game, they are considered better than average.  An average offensive team gains between 110 and 125 rushing yards per game.  90% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average rushing offense from 1999-2008.  Teams that have averaged less than 110 rushing yards gained per game in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.

Eliminated Teams:  Texans, Colts, Seahawks

Offense #2 Predictor - Results

If a team converts over 45% of their 3rd down attempts on offense, they are considered better than average.  An average offensive team converts between 40 and 45 percent of their 3rd down attempts on offense.  70% of SuperBowl teams had at least an average 3rd down success on offense from 1999-2008.  Teams that have converted less than 40% of their 3rd down attempts on offense in 2009 thus far were eliminated from SuperBowl contention.

Eliminated Teams:  Broncos, Jets, Eagles

3nd Tier SuperBowl Contenders:  

(medium probability to make playoffs, low probability to make SuperBowl)
Falcons, Cowboys, and Giants

2nd Tier SuperBowl Contenders:  

(high probability to make playoffs, medium probability to make SuperBowl)
Packers, Patriots, Ravens, and Bengals

1st Tier SuperBowl Contenders:

(guaranteed playoffs, high probability to make SuperBowl)
Vikings and Saints*

*I realize they are both in the same conference, but they are currently the two most dominant teams in the NFL.  There is a very high probability that one of these teams will be in the SuperBowl. 

Next Gripe Project...Best Team in NFL History - 1983 Redskins?!?!...

General Gripe #3: Financial Responsibility

The recent economic crisis in the United States came about due to many different factors from various people around the country.  The fiscal irresponsibility of many American families is one of those factors, and it strikes me as the one that could have been easily avoided if people had been given better advice on how to run their finances.  A lot of this bad advice has come from financial institutions in the form of Adjustable-Rate Mortgages and inflated egos, but a lot of the recent heartache probably could have been avoided if people had been taught some simple daily-living finance rules.  I feel as though Laura and I have done quite well at managing our finances over the past five years thanks to some simple daily-living finance rules.  I would like to share some of the rules that have helped us save money since graduating from college and survive the past two years of an unstable American economy:

Guido's Gripes Simple Guide to Finances

The Green Rule:  Don't Buy Stuff You Can't Afford!!

Exception to The Green Rule:  If you can't afford something, don't charge it unless you need it!!

Understand the difference between Wants and Needs:

• Wants:  something desired 
• all types of toys (big, small, electronic, paper-based...)
  
• excessive amounts of clothes (major labels)
  
• candy, snacks
  
• restaurant meals (over $25)
  
• entertainment (movies, concerts, happy hours)  
• travel (vacations)
  

• Needs:  must have/requirement
• food (grocery food)
  
• water (the drinking type)
  
• shelter (mortgage/rent)...box on street if you don't listen)
  
• heat, water, electricity (bills)
  
• transportation - excludes luxury brands (ie -BMW, Lexus, Range Rover...)

The Red Rule:  Build a reserve fund that would maintain a baseline quality of life for at least 3 months* if worse case scenario occurred.
*According to Suze, you should have at least 8 months of savings...three months is a good starting point in my opinion.

How to Build Reserve Fund

Step #1:  Set-up an account (fund) with an online savings bank (higher savings yields than traditional banks).
Step #2:  Transfer an initial deposit of at least $250 to fund, more if possible.
Step #3:  Slowly build online savings fund by putting a set amount (at least $50 and above) in each month.
Step #4:  Never Withdraw Money from this fund, unless a crisis occurs - such as job loss, act of god, accident, personal stupidity...

Road Rage #5: Two Commuting Hazards

Fakepoolers 

- individual who acquires a carpool tag and parks in a carpool spot with no passengers - 

You people can go to hell.  You are taking spots away from the true carpoolers (2 or more people = carpool).  Two days ago, I actually witnessed an individual walk from her office to her car in her so-called "carpool" spot and drive off.  What makes it worse is that I was able to prove without a reasonable doubt that she was a fakepooler because I inadvertently followed her through the garage and out of the complex, and nobody else ever got in the car!!  No Excuses - you fakepoolers are arrogant, lying, phonies!!

Ford Aerostar Mini-Van Owners 

- usually found abandoned on the side of the road or broken down in the middle lane of traffic with their 4-way flashers on -

How are these things still on the road?  They were discontinued in 1997.  Words of Advice for Ford Aerostar Mini-Vans Owners: Regular maintenance is required for a vehicle to remain operational, even more so for you because your car is a old POS from Ford.  If you take my advice, maybe your crappy mini-van will stop breaking down in the middle of the road, thus eliminating the numerous traffic nightmares you create on a daily basis.

Sports Gripe #3: LeTravel

The first Wizards-Cavs game of the 2009-2010 season is tonight in the lame city of Cleveland, and there is not one player in the NBA that I despise more than the Cav's LeBron James aka "The King", "Cry Baby", "LeTravel".  My hatred for LeBron started three years ago when he used four steps to score the game-winning basket at the end of a crucial playoff game, but was not called for a travel by the referees:


He took 4 Steps!! 3 Steps = Travel

Eventually, the refs caught onto "The King's" LeBron's illegal moves and grew enough balls to make this call in last year's Wiz-Cavs game:


First "Crab Dribble" Sighting

The "Cry Baby" still contends that the "crab dribble" is legal, despite the fact that it violates every NBA rule for legal dribbling.  The following video proves why the "crab dribble" is illegal:


The Birth of LeTravel

Go Wizards!!  

(added bonus: I'm attending the Wizards game tomorrow night against the Heat)

Social Gripe #2: Halloween Abusers

The Grossly Uncostumed 

- appears as a plain-clothed child (typically older), but with a pillowcase in hand

Black sweats, plain hats, ratty jeans, white t-shirts, etc. are not considered a costume - you are just being lazy!!  You want candy from me, you are going to need to put a little more effort into your costume rags.

The "Candy-Eating" Toddler
- as seen in the arms of their parent (since they can't walk!!)

So your 6-month old baby eats solid candy?  I don't think so...stop carrying the baby from house-to-house in an attempt to get candy for the baby yourself.  NO CANDY FOR YOU!!

The Savage High-Schooler

- can be heard coming from miles away and is found in groups of similar kind

You are too old for trick-or-treating.  Let the little kids enjoy the candy and experience without your gracious loud presence.  I know you wouldn't be able to notice those children since you are being distracted by your obnoxious group of followers that makes a point to scream and howl down each driveway/road.

Project #2: Part A - NFL Turnover Differential

Disclaimer: I am not a statistics professional. Statistics and such statements about those statistics that are published on this blog are not to be considered perfect. If you are looking for accurate research statistics based on absolute science, it is unlikely you will find those here. The ultimate goal of these posts is to see where a common person can use simplified data to find basic statistical trends in sports.

Now that one-third of the NFL schedule is complete, there is sufficient team data present to start some statistical trend analysis on the 2009 NFL season.  My goal is to see which statistics are the best predictors of success in the regular reason and in the playoffs/SuperBowl.  

First Up:  Turnover Difference

As you can see from the pink shaded percentages, positive turnover difference is a very sound predictor of regular and post season success in the NFL over the past four seasons.  Teams with a positive turnover differential made the playoffs 77% of the time from 2005-2008.  88% of SuperBowl participants between 2005-2008 had a positive turnover differential and 3 of the 4 SuperBowl Champions since 2005 have had a positive turnover differential.  These results seems to signify a definite trend, but it only measures the past 4 years.  Let's take a look at what happens when data from the 1999-2004 and 2005-2008 seasons are combined:

 
Primary Conclusion - It is rare for a team to win the SuperBowl if they turned the ball over more than they took it away in the regular season - 90% of SuperBowl teams from 1999-2008 had a positive turnover differential.    
***Only once in the past 10 years has a team been able to win the SuperBowl with a negative turnover differential in the regular season (NY Giants beating the 18-0 NE Patriots in 2007).  

Secondary Conclusion:  Turnover differential is a solid predictor of regular season success in the NFL - 72% of playoff teams from 1999-2008 had a positive turnover differential.

In an attempt to predict which teams will have success this year, primary conclusions will be used to eliminate teams from SuperBowl contention.  Teams with a negative turnover differential have been marked in the data table with an "X" and will no longer be considered as a possible SuperBowl winner. 

Eliminated Teams* - Panthers, Browns, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Dolphins, Raiders, Seahawks, Rams, Bucs, Titans, Redskins, and Steelers

*It is very possible that teams with a negative turnover differential around -1 to -3 could change their ways and be removed from the eliminated teams list if they start generating more positive turnovers.

Next step, using historical defensive statistics to eliminate a set of the remaining 19 teams from SuperBowl contention...

Social Gripe #1: Divine Beings

Elevator Slaves 
- uses the elevator to go from 2nd floor to 1st floor -

Stop riding the elevator you lazy bums!!  People situated on the higher floors don't have choice - it takes too long to walk down multiple flights of stairs.  If you took the stairs, you would save yourself time and stop wasting our time in the process.  Using an elevator to go from the 2nd floor to the 1st floor puts on display your complete lack of concern for anybody but your stupid self.

Wall Clicks  
- a group that maintains horizontal wall when individuals approach from opposite direction -

Get over yourself and make room for people walking the other way - despite what you may think, you are not the only person in this world.  Instead of being a courteous individual and forming a vertical line when necessary, you proceed to knock people off walkways or into walls.  And for you men that do this when a lady is approaching, you have no class - forcing a lady off a sidewalk and into the mud is inexcusable.

General Gripe #2: "Singers"

Miley Cyrus = Man-boy

When will people realize that she sounds like a boy when she is singing her "hit" songs?  I wish people besides me would acknowledge that her songs are not good.  Don't be surprised if she announces she is of the male gender in the future.

Rihanna = The Screecher  

Has anybody else noticed that her "songs" contain very little singing?  The constant screaming, howling, yelling, and barking during her so-called "hit" songs is very annoying and harmful to my ears. 

Social Gripe #3: Egocentrics - Part B: Recreation

Recreation - refreshment of health or spirits by relaxation and enjoyment

In my opinion, Egocentrics are amazingly good at ruining all types of recreation (casual, competitive, fun, etc.)  They find ways to stop the "relaxation and enjoyment" part and tend to ruin the "refreshment of health or spirits" through their selfish/egocentric ways.  Listed below are the Egocentric character-types that have ruined my past attempts at Recreation:

1.  Super-Athlete - Ever play against somebody that was ripped from head to toe, runs the 40 in 4.3 seconds, and can bench over 300 pounds?  Yeah, this person tends to show up in recreation leagues or pickup games in an attempt to "own" everybody by crushing them with their superior athletic attributes.  Go play somebody from your fantasy land of athletic perfection.  What's the point in turning other people's fun recreational activity into a painful struggle?
Three Words:  Get a Life!! 

2.  The Painfully Serious - Their Method of Operation: Everything is a competition and everything must be done with a 110% (beyond maximum) effort.  They typically play with such passion and drive that the well-being of other players is ignored. Maximum Seriousness = Maximum Injury Potential
Typical Occurrence: Accidental injuries to innocent bystanders.

3.  Dirty Player - Physically hurting fellow players during fun activities is always an option for them.  They will kick, scream, scratch, and claw their way to top (even if the situation was casual).  Pain is only temporary in their mind, but opposing players are usually the only ones feeling the pain.
My advice:  Avoid this character at all times (expect a great deal of pain if you get within 10 feet of them during recreational activities) 

4.  Mr(s). Awesome - Their Permanent Mindset:  I am "God's Gift to Recreation".  If you ever get the pleasure of playing with Mr(s). Awesome, get used to being wrong all of the time. He/she will dominate all aspects of the game while controlling your actions, and then he/she will proceed to berate you later for messing up and being stupid. 
Simple Solution:  Run Away!!  No matter the final outcome, your self-esteem will be at an all-time low thanks to them.

5.  Complainer (guilty as charged) - Unfortunately, I probably fall into this category, but feel as though I only become this when other recreational egocentrics are present.  This person tends to complain about every part of the recreational activity.  They will even find a way to complain when everything is going perfect for them.
Their Typical Location:  Find the Referee (they are usually yelling at them or in their general direction).

Stay tuned for future posts on other types of Egocentrics...

Social Gripe #3: Egocentrics - Part A: Workplace

I think I'm ready to start griping again and I apologize for the lack of posts lately.  I've been trying to keep a positive attitude, thus the lack of "gripes", but I'm ready to complain again (human nature, right?).  This series of posts shall focus on the Egocentrics - the most annoying group of people in my opinion.  I present to you a list of annoying Egocentric character-types from the Workplace:

1.  Hand-Raisers - These are the people that must raise their hand in every class, presentation, meeting, etc.  They usually have nothing important to say but they have this strange urge to hear themselves talk (usually a result of their own stupidity or insecurity issues).  My Advice: Open your Hears and Shut Up!!

2.  Yappers - Continuation of #1.  These are the people who not only raise their hand, but proceed to give the entire audience a complete recap of the session through the use of a dumb question or complaint about a totally insignificant minute detail.  Please Shut Up and spare all of us from your useless dribble.

3.  Control Freaks - One Word: Trust.  The world won't end if you let somebody else complete a task.  Give people an opportunity to succeed, and they might surprise you - loosening your grip might even make your job easier in the immediate or near future. 

4.  Micro-Managers - If you are a boss and you check on your employee's work status more than once a day, then you are a micro-manager.  Learn to trust your employees.  Micro-managing is bad for an employee's psyche and their productivity usually suffers in the long run because of your constant pestering.

5.  Workaholics - For all of you that work for Uncle Sam: 9 to 5 means you should show up for work at 9am and leave at 5pm.  You are only getting paid for those hours, so there is no need to stay until 8pm to check email and find new ways to annoy others.  Simple Motto: Work to Live, not Live to Work.

6.  Self-Professed "Intellectuals" - Those of you that speak to your co-workers with "big" words from your 1600 SAT vocabulary fall into this category.  You are not smarter than somebody just because you use "big" words.  In my opinion, you are the dumb one because you only feel good when you are using your vast vocabulary in an attempt to demean others.  Get over yourself and try to act normal!!  Life Goal: Instead of being a selfish jerk, try to make people feel good about themselves before stroking your massive vocabulary ego.

Stay tuned for future posts on other types of Egocentrics...

Sports Gripe #2: Competitive Balance

The idea of a Major League Baseball (MLB) Salary Cap seems like a simple concept, yet it may never happen in the current system for some odd reason that I will never know or understand.  Currently, salary caps exist in the other four major American sporting associations - NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLS.  The dumb-asses in charge of MLB believe that a salary cap is unnecessary because in their demented eyes, a fair competitive balance is already present (I shall prove otherwise). I have a lot of gripes with MLB, but the lack of competitive balance (since there is no salary cap) really makes it difficult for me to watch professional baseball games.

Conclusions:

• An MLB team with Top 5 payroll in a given year will have at least a 50% chance of making the playoffs.
• The likelihood of an MLB team with a Top 10 payroll in a given year making the playoffs continues to increase each season.

So basically, if you are an MLB owner and you spend more money than your opponent, your team has a much greater chance of success.  Not spending money means your team has little to no chance of making the playoffs.  That's about as simple as I can put it.  It goes much deeper than that, but I don't think I need to bore you with all of the details.

The bottom line is that the high spenders in MLB have a huge advantage over the low spenders, and it is my belief that a salary cap would stop that trend in a heartbeat -see the National Football League (NFL).  The Redskins owner (Dan Synder) and Cowboys owner (Jerry Jones) have all the money in the world to buy all of the best players, but can't because the NFL salary cap restricts the amount a team can spend on players.  Thanks to NFL's salary cap system, teams from the smaller markets (Bengals, Lions, and Browns) have an equal opportunity to compete every year.  The NFL really does have a great system - take a hint Major League Baseball. 

Road Rage #4: Route 14 in Harrington, DE

Rule: Avoid Route 14 in Harrington, Delaware

Reality: Laura and I have to drive through Harrington, Delaware on Route 14 for two miles at 25 mph each time a visit to the Milford, DE area is in order.

My Rationale: Harrington has a downtown central district that is only two miles long, but it feels like 10 miles because you are forced to drive right through it at 25 mph. The speed limit goes from a normal and comfortable 50 mph to a slow and painful 25 mph as you enter the cramped area. And to make the situation worse, the speed limit is strictly enforced by the stupid little town's one police officer (no joke - you better not even think about going one mph over 25 mph).

Advice: There is no bypass road around this 25 mph zone in Harrington. Why wouldn't you build a bypass road around the town when the surrounding area is littered with empty fields? I propose the construction of a bypass road (seems like a simple concept to me). Here is my depiction of a Route 14-Harrington Bypass:

I don't know about you, but it is difficult for me to consistently maintain speeds of less than 30 mph. The car just does not want to drive long distances at that speed. Anybody else experience areas/roads like Route 14 in Harrington, DE? I must say that the town seems fairly normal and tolerable otherwise. I just wish they would make it so I do not have to drive 25 mph for two miles while driving through on my way to Milford.

Top 10 Road Pet Peeves

I'm having trouble deciding which topic to gripe about next, so I decided to list my Top 10 road annoyances. I could probably make a list of at least 20 road annoyances, but I'm going to show some restraint for now. In an effort to give back to my blog followers, I have added a poll on the right side that will allow you to select the next Guido's Gripe from the following list...or another of your choosing.

10. Tailgaters of Tailgaters

9. Road Domination by Commuter (Keller) Buses

8. Traffic Weavers

7. Breakaholics

6. Slow Drivers

5. Not Using a Turn Signal

4. Route 14 in Harrington, Delaware

3. Non-Use of Deceleration Lane (see Road Rage #1)

2. Lack of Appropriate Headlight Use (see Road Rage #3)

1. Riding in the Left Lane (see Road Rage #2)

Again, this is just a sampling of my road pet peeves. People do lots of stupid things on the road and I would love to know if you have experienced any other dangerous situations on the road that could be classified as pet peeves.

General Gripe #1: "Legally Speeding"

Which scenario has the worst possible outcome?

A. Driving 100 mph in a 45 mph zone
B. Driving 45 mph in a 45 mph zone
C. Driving 50 mph in a 45 mph zone
D. Driving 40 mph in a 45 mph zone

If you selected A, you win!! But you don't get a prize...sorry. You do get the satisfaction of knowing that you are a smarter than a particular law enforcement officer. Recently, an innocent person was killed due to the stupidity of one such police officer. Let me ask you another question...

Which scenario would not be acceptable for a police officer when responding to a domestic dispute?

A. Driving 100 mph in a 45 mph zone
B. Driving between 76 and 99 mph in a 45 mph zone
C. Driving between 60 and 75 mph in a 45 mph zone
D. Driving between 45 and 59 mph in a 45 mph zone

If you selected A and B, you win!! But again, you don't get a prize. You are, however, a rational human being that recognizes when police power is being abused.

So why am I asking these questions? Here's your answer - Accident

After reading the article, I was trying to comprehend how fast the police officer had to be going to flip his own car. Movie studios can't even flip cars for movie stunts, so I'm guessing this police officer was driving pretty darn fast to actually pull off a flip. Some reports/on-lookers say the police car was going at least 80mph at the time of impact. Compounding this 80mph report are the 200 feet of skid marks before the impact area - meaning the police car actually slowed down before impacting and killing the innocent girl. In my estimation, the police officer was going at least 90mph (possibly even 100mph) in a 45mph zone...let me repeat...45mph zone.

Since I have used this intersection multiple times in the past, I'm pretty sure that a police car (or any car for that matter) going over 80mph into Dunkirk (coming over a hill) would not have been seen even if the person crossing the intersection uses all of the possible safe driving techniques. There is a reason for the 45mph speed limit - the blind hill, but none of that seemed to be in the mind of Deputy Wayne Wells as he created this horrific accident.

This kind of reckless behavior and abuse of power is totally unacceptable. I'm sure Deputy Wells will get nothing more than a slap on the wrist. He may even be (insert sarcasm) lucky enough to get six months of paid administrative leave vacation.

The situation worsened when Sheriff Evans arrived on the scene and decide to comment on the accident:

"He was speeding, but he was speeding legally," Evans said of Wells, who he believed was wearing his seatbelt at the time of impact. -somdnews.com-

Does anybody else agree with the Sheriff? There are limits to "legally speeding" - over 75mph in a 45mph should never be legal. I think I'll try to use the "legally speeding" excuse if I ever get pulled over for speeding. I can't believe I actually voted for this idiot Sheriff last election - never again.

Road Rage #3 - Headlight Use

In my estimation, turning on the headlights is one of the easiest tasks to accomplish in a car.  This process of hitting/turning the headlight switch seems to be a problem for too many people.  The consequences of this inaction by drivers usually creates dire outcomes for the innocent people around them.  To give credibility to this headlight usage gripe, I present the State of Maryland's law on headlight use: "Turn your headlights on when visibility is poor and use wipers and headlights in inclement weather. Maryland law now requires headlights to be used whenever windshield wipers are used continuously because of visibility conditions."

I have created a list of situations where a driver should be courteous to others and turn on their headlights.  The main premise is that headlights should be turned on whenever the sky is devoid or partially devoid of light - taken from Merriam-Webster definition of dark.  The words that one must pay particular attention to in the definition of dark are "partially devoid".  Many people do not seem to understand this concept - they understand that headlights are supposed to be on when it is dark, but they do not understand that darkness does not only apply when light is completely absent, but also when light has been partially dimmed, obstructed, or blocked. 

Mandatory Headlight Use Times

1.  At Night - This is when the sun is down and the moon is up, plus it is dark outside, hence the need for headlights; any questions?  I didn't think so.

2.  At Dusk - This is when the sun is starting to go down and the moon is starting to go up.  Most people seem to think that headlights are not needed during this time period.  I beg to differ - if you are driving a gray, black, or dark blue car during dusk, it is difficult for other drivers to see you...but with headlights on, the car will be seen!!  Quite the concept, right?

3.  At Dawn - The antithesis of dusk - the moon is starting to go down and the sun is starting to go up.  Here is the only thing one needs to understand about dawn - "It is recognized by the presence of weak sunlight, while the sun itself is still below the horizon."  I guess people could say that the sunlight is present so I do not need my headlights, but they would be wrong since the sun is still below the horizon.

4.  Raining, snowing, sleeting, etc - If something is coming out of the sky, turn on your lights.  It's against the law to not have your lights on when it is raining...and if you have a brain, you would realize that snowing and sleeting are no different than rain, so turn on your headlights before you kill somebody.

5.  Foggy/Cloudy days -  Maybe this one isn't as clear cut for you as it is for me.  My stance - if you would like to avoid killing other people, then you should heed my warning and turn on your headlights when the skies have less than 100% sunshine due to clouds and fog.  

6.  My Personal Favorite - Turn on your headlights immediately upon starting your car.  I'm waiting for your angry response..."But that is unnecessary".  That may be partially true, but in my opinion, if you are too dumb to realize the aforementioned five situations, then you should take all of the guess-work out of the equation and turn on your headlights every time you start the car.

It's obvious to me that many people will continue to disobey the laws of the road (headlights in this instance).  I will continue to author and post these types of lists in an attempt to prevent deaths from occurring on the roads due to people's irresponsible behavior and blatant stupidity. 

Sports Gripe #1: Defensive Indifference

The term "defensive indifference" was coined by Major League Baseball in the 1920's. It refers to the situation where a base runner does not get credited with a stolen base after stealing a base.

Wait...that statement does not make any sense?!?! Does it? How can that be? Statistics are a major aspect of baseball, shouldn't all steals count? When is a steal not a steal? Who came up with this stupid rule?

Those are some of the common responses I would expect from viewers after hearing an announcer speak of "defensive indifference" while watching a steal occur during a nationally televised baseball game. I certainly said a few of those things when I first heard about this moronic concept years ago. I believe that a steal is a steal, no matter the situation - it is unfathomable that a player could steal a base and not get credit for their efforts on the stat sheet. Baseball fanatics and statistics gurus could probably argue the validity of this MLB rule, but the O's game from this past Saturday showcased a legitimate flaw in the "defensive indifference" rule of the MLB rulebook - 10.07(g).

I'm going to sum up the "defensive indifference" rule in one sentence:

Defensive Indifference occurs when one team is ahead by multiple runs in the 9th inning and allows the losing team to steal bases because they do not see the losing team's base runners as a threat to their victory (most common usage).

The actual rule (stated in bold text below) does not explain the rule accurately. The presence of a long rule comment (in italics below) signifies a rule where scorekeepers must use subjective judgment when applying the rule during a game - I'm not high on scorekeeper reliability when it comes to objectiveness. If you need a page to explain a rule, there is probably something wrong with the rule. Ignore the text below in italics - I put it here as a testament to how convoluted and over-stated the rule is in its current state.

(g) The official scorer shall not score a stolen base when a runner advances solely because of the defensive team's indifference to the runner’s advance. The official scorer shall score such a play as a fielder's choice.
Rule 10.07(g) Comment: The scorer shall consider, in judging whether the defensive team has been indifferent to a runner’s advance, the totality of the circumstances, including the inning and score of the game, whether the defensive team had held the runner on base, whether the pitcher had made any pickoff attempts on that runner before the runner’s advance, whether the fielder ordinarily expected to cover the base to which the runner advanced made a move to cover such base, whether the defensive team had a legitimate strategic motive to not contest the runner’s advance or whether the defensive team might be trying impermissibly to deny the runner credit for a stolen base. For example, with runners on first and third bases, the official scorer should ordinarily credit a stolen base when the runner on first advances to second, if, in the scorer’s judgment, the defensive team had a legitimate strategic motive—namely, preventing the runner on third base from scoring on the throw to second base—not to contest the runner’s advance to second base. The official scorer may conclude that the defensive team is impermissibly trying to deny a runner credit for a stolen base if, for example, the defensive team fails to defend the advance of a runner approaching a league or career record or a league statistical title.

Failure of the Defensive Indifference Rule:

Situation: Random Game in the Middle of the Season, O's at White Sox, July 18th, 2009, O's down 4-1 at the start of the 9th inning with closer Jenks coming in for the White Sox.
Phase 1: Mora doubles to lead off the 9th inning. Reimold singles to drive in Mora. White Sox still lead 4-2.

Phase 2: Wieters and Scott strike out. Reimold steals second...sorry...defensive indifference (see image from ESPN Play-by-Play below).

Phase 3: Roberts singles to drive in Reimold. White Sox still lead 4-3.
Phase 4: Markakis grounds into fielder's choice to 2nd. White Sox win 4-3.

MLB Explanation: According to the MLB rulebook, Reimold is not given credit for a stolen base because the opposing team did not make an attempt to get him out. The opposing team does not make an attempt to throw him out because his advancement to 2nd will not "change" the outcome of the game.

My Gripe: My reaction to the MLB Explanation - FALSE!! I would agree that the steal of 2nd base by Reimold did not have an impact on the final outcome of the game, but the steal can be justified as consequential because a note-worthy statistical impact occurred:
Positive Statistical Impact: Reimold - run scored
Negative Statistical Impact: Jenks - ERA increases because of run scored.

Reimold should receive credit for a stolen base since a statistical impact was present. A pitcher never wants extra runs scored on them (don't let them tell you otherwise). The "defensive indifference," or steal in my opinion, was the direct reason for an additional run being scored . If Reimold was on first when Roberts singles, no run is scored, and it is a first and third situation for Markakis. If Markakis were to still ground out, the third out would have been recorded with no additional runs being scored. Outcome still same, O's lose, 4-2 instead of 4-3, but Jenks' ERA stays a little bit smaller.

The "defensive indifference" rule is claiming that a run can be irrelevant if it does not affect the winner of the game. If the base runner will not effect the outcome of the game, then why not try end the game by throwing him out at second (and save your pitcher from throwing unnecessary pitches)? That seems to make logical sense to me, but I'm only one person.

In my opinion, baseball has become a game of statistics - every one of them should be counted equally - if one is discounted for another, then the validity of all statistics has been damaged exponentially. The best way to maintain the intergrity of Major League Baseball is to make all "steals"/"defensive indifferences" the same statistically no matter how small or large the impact is on the overall situation.

Road Rage #2: Advice for Left-Lane Riders

The biggest threat to all commuters - "the keepers of the speed" or left-lane riders. So who are these people you may ask? You might be surprised to find out that you are one of them. Please use this tool to determine whether you are a left-lane rider currently or have been one in the past. My advice would be to learn the warning signs of each Code Level and protect yourself by obeying the "best course of action" listed below each one.

Left-Lane Threat Levels

• Code Green - You are in the left-lane, the car behind you is less than a car-length away.
• Life is good at this point. No recognizable danger at the current moment.
• Best course of action is to proceed to the right-lane at the next possible safe opportunity.
  

• Code Yellow - You are in the left-lane, the car behind you is less than a car-length away and flashing their lights.
• You should be a little concerned at this point. Danger level has risen slightly.
• Best course of action is to proceed to the right-lane at the next possible opportunity.
  

• Code Orange - You are in the left-lane, the car behind you is less than a car-length away, flashing their lights, and beeping their car horn.
• You should be fairly concerned at this point. Danger level is at an elevated state.
• Best course of action is to immediately put on your right-turn signal and proceed to the right-lane even if it means cutting somebody else off.
  

• Code Red - You are in the left-lane, the car behind you is less than a car-length away, flashing their lights, beeping their car horn, and swerving from line to line (similar to a NASCAR driver keeping their tires warm before a race starts).
• You are facing an immediate threat on your life. Danger level is at an ultimate high.
• Best course of action is to speed up and use all possible methods to rid yourself of this car before harm is done to your car and/or body.
  

• Code Blue - You are no longer in the left-lane, the car behind you has pushed you and your slow car off the road.
• You have worn out the patience of the car behind you. You have ignored all previous warning signs and must now deal with the consequences. Because of your inability to remove yourself from the left-lane, damage has likely been made to you and your car. Whether it was your stubbornness or flighty nature that caused this accident is irrelevant - the fact of the matter is that you are annoying and disruptive to other drivers on the road.
• Best course of action is survival.

Project #1, Part C - Impact of Fielding Errors

Disclaimer: I am not a statistics professional. Statistics and such statements about those statistics that are published on this blog are not to be considered perfect. If you are looking for accurate research statistics based on absolute science, it is unlikely you will find those here. The ultimate goal of these posts is to see where a common person can use simplified data to find basic statistical trends in sports.

I complied the team batting averages for every MLB team from 2005 to 2008. Playoff and World Series batting average trends are noticeable, yet the overall validity of these trends is hard to measure due to scale issues. Finding an acceptable low, medium, and high batting average range between 2005-2008 was possible, but was made more difficult due to the high league batting average of 2006.

Expanded Questions:

1. Is defense (fielding errors) a better predictor of postseason success in Major League Baseball than pitching (ERA) and/or hitting (batting average)?
2. Which statement is more accurate? "defense wins championships" or "pitching wins championship"

Updated File - batting average and league averages added

Data Tab (see file above)

Breakdown Tab

Current MLB Playoff Trends between 2005-2008

Definite Trends (occurred every time)

1. World Series teams have average to great fielding.
2. World Series teams have average to great pitching.
3. World Series teams have average to great hitting.
4. Playoff teams have average to great pitching.
   

Common Trends (occurred 50% to 99% of the time)

1. World Series teams tend to have great pitching.
2. Playoff teams tend to have average to great fielding.
3. Playoff teams tend to have average to great hitting.

Common Trend: League-Defined

1. In the American League, playoff teams tend to have great hitting.
2. In the National League, playoff teams tend to have great pitching.
   

Question #1: Is defense (fielding errors) a better predictor of postseason success in Major League Baseball than pitching (ERA) and/or hitting (batting average)?

Answer: Defense is not the best predictor of postseason success in Major League Baseball based on 2005-2008 data. According to my research, pitching is the best predictor of postseason success or World Series qualification for the foreseeable future - see Common Trend #1. It is very unlikely that a team will make the World Series in the next few years with a poor pitching staff. Average to great hitting was necessary for a team to reach the World Series between 2005 and 2008, but fewer than half had great hitting - see Breakdown Tab.

Order of Postseason Importance: 2005-2008

1. Pitching (Earned Run Average)
2. Hitting (Batting Average)
3. Defense (Fielding Errors)
   

Question #2: Which statement is more accurate? "defense wins championships" or "pitching wins championship"

Answer: "Pitching wins championships" is currently a more accurate statement than "defense wins championships." Both are important, but great pitching has been more apparent in World Series teams than great defense over the past four years - see Common Trend #1. I feel as though it is unfair to say that one aspect of the game (fielding, pitching, hitting) is more important than the other when comes to postseason success and World Series championships. The research shows that a team needs all three aspects of the game to be successful in the postseason - see Definite Trends #1, 2, and 3.

Gripe Project #1 - Impact of Fielding Errors - Conclusion

1. Poor fielding teams only made the playoffs about 20% of the time between 2005-2008.
2. Playoff teams with a high number of errors in the regular season will usually field poorly in the playoffs and never reach the World Series.
3. Teams with great pitching will always have a better shot at winning the World Series than a teams with only great fielding.
4. Poor pitching teams did not make the playoffs once between 2005-2008.
5. A team must be average to great in all facets (fielding, pitching, and hitting) in order to reach the World Series.

Coming Soon...Gripe Project #2 - Playoff Predictor
(based on Gripe Project #1 findings)

GG MLB Power Rankings

Goal: MLB power rankings developed by websites like ESPN, CBS, and Fox tend to result in rankings by win-loss record with little variations. I wanted to develop a power ranking methodology that represents which teams are playing the best currently by incorporating statistics that measure past, present, and future performance.

Outcome: After working through multiple drafts, a power rankings methodology materialized that determines the teams a fan would want their team to play or not play in the near future.

Justification (formula file):
The GG MLB Power Rankings are calculated through the following seven factors:

Three Main Factors (20% x 3 = 60%):

• Overall: takes into account overall play for year through season win percentage.
  
• Future: uses the pythagorean theorem to give a prediction of the future through use of runs scored and runs against thus far.
• Recent: rewards 1% per win in the last 10 games to give credit for recent success.

Three Secondary Factors (13.3% x 3 = 40%):

• Fielding: gives half of a team's fielding percentage value
  
• Pitching: uses an adjusted ERA formula to give half the value for a team's low ERA
  
• Batting: breaks down a team's runs scored per game to a percentage of one and gives half the value
  

One Bonus Factor (+/- 10% Max):

• Current: gives a 1% increase for each straight win, or decrease by 1% for each straight loss, in a current steak.

Results

• Blue signifies a team that is not playing well.

• Green signifies a team that is playing at an average level.

• Red signifies a team that is playing very well.

How to Use the Results

Example:

Your Team:

Baltimore Orioles

Upcoming Opponent:

Boston Red Sox

Output from GG Value:

Baltimore Orioles = 67.3 (60-80 category)

Boston Red Sox = 77.4 (60-80 category)

Result: Equal

• Neither team has a decided advantage over the other currently
• Game or series could go either way
• Red Sox are playing slightly better by the #'s, but not at a level that is significantly better than the O's.

This is my first attempt at a power rankings formula, so please do not hesitate to use the comments section to voice concerns/flaws on my methodology.

Road Rage #1 - Deceleration Lane

Pictured to the left is an illustration of a typical road with a deceleration lane.

The process of decelerating off a road seems to be quite challenging for many drivers. In many situations, people use deceleration lanes in a manner that results in precarious traffic situations for the drivers around them - braking early, no turn signal, stopping on the road, etc.





How to Use the Deceleration Lane (My ABC Technique):
- please refer to the illustration below for reference points -

A - You are driving and want to exit in 100 feet. Turn on your right turn signal, but keep driving (let off gas slightly if necessary).

DO NOT HIT THE BRAKES

B - You have started exiting onto the deceleration lane. Resist the urge to hit the brakes or the accelerator. Keep the right turn signal on.

C - You are now completely in the deceleration lane. You may start hitting the brakes and decelerate down to an acceptable speed for the exit/ramp.

Note - I understand that this process is not valid for all situations, but most of the time, you should be using my simple ABC technique if you want to be a safe driver that prevents (not creates) accidents.

There are a multitude of details and scenarios that could be presented when discussing deceleration lanes, but I felt the need to keep this fairly simple by focusing on the braking and turn signal aspects. It's comical to me that posts like this are necessary, but hopefully even the good drivers out there can take note from this illustration and see where other drivers are endangering their lives by not using the deceleration lane properly.

- Obeying the rules of the road and using deceleration lanes correctly is one way to reduce accidents, but the use of defensive driving techniques by all drivers would make the roads exponentially safer for drivers and passengers alike. -

Project #1, Part B - Impact of Fielding Errors

Disclaimer: I am not a statistics professional. Statistics and such statements about those statistics that are published on this blog are not to be considered perfect. If you are looking for accurate research statistics based on absolute science, it is unlikely you will find those here. The ultimate goal of these posts is to see where a common person can use simplified data to find basic statistical trends in sports.

Every basketball and football season, sports analysts from major networks continue to preach the age old adage - "defense wins championships"- when discussing which teams can win it all, but in the baseball, the classic thought is that "pitching wins championships." It is rare to hear people discuss "defense" as a deciding factor for whether a team can win the World Series. My assumption would be that this comes from pitching being misconstrued as "defense" in the baseball world. I agree that on some level pitching is a form of defense, but lets take a closer look at fielding numbers (errors) and see if "defense wins championships", or in MLB terms, the World Series.

The Question:
Is defense (fielding errors) a better predictor of postseason success in Major League Baseball than pitching (ERA)?

New File - Errors and ERA with breakdown tab (images below)

Data Tab

Breakdown Tab

Current MLB Playoff Trends from 2005-2008

Definite Trends (occurs most of the time)

1. World Series teams tend to have an average to great defense.
2. Playoff teams tend to have an average to great ERA.
3. World Series teams tend to have an average to great ERA.
   

Common Trends (occurs over 50% of the time)

1. Playoff teams tend to have an average to great defense.
2. World Series teams tend to have a great ERA.
   

Interesting Trend

1. The best defensive teams only represent 6% of all playoff teams, but tend to have a better chance of making the World Series than teams with an average to bad defense.

My Novice Answer

Poor defensive teams have a marginal chance at making the playoffs and will rarely make the World Series. Teams with a high ERA will rarely make the playoffs, let alone the World Series. Based on the data from Part A and B, I would say that pitching (represented by ERA in this project) is a better predictor of playoff qualification and success than fielding (errors). Great defense may not win a World Series, but it is highly unlikely a team will have success in the playoffs without an average to great defense.

Coming soon: Part C - adding offensive statistics (batting average) to the equation...

Shaq and LeTravel on the same team!?!?

First Reaction: The idea of Shaq and LeTravel on the same team should bother me a lot, but I don't see them co-existing on the court very well. They already have a pretty decent post-up player with a good mid-range shot in Iqauskas (FYI - Shaq does not have a mid-range shot). I guess Shaq does provide the Cavs with better matchup against Dwight Howard. So they'll match up better with the Magic, but who else does Shaq help them beat on a nightly basis? The Cavs still lack the quality wing player and 3-point shooter that LeTravel has constantly requested over the past three years.

Second Reaction: This trade is complete garbage: Shaq for a retiring Ben Wallace, Crappy Sasha (only good year was a result of LeTravel's help), and a late first round pick in a weak draft. I understand it's a salary dump, which the Suns needed badly, but shouldn't they get some decent talent back for one of the best centers ever?

Final Reaction: Ultimately, there is nothing technically wrong with this trade from a rules standpoint. I just don't like trades where salary is the main concern and fair/equal value is thrown out the window. The Wizards should hurry and find some more front-court players before Shaq starts to abuse them. Haywood is going to be seeing a lot of Shaq again, and I don't think an extraordinary effort by Haywood (contract year) will be enough to handle Shaq come playoff time.

I had to throw this picture in here for good measure:
(all the credit goes to TruthAboutIt for this image)

LeTravel

Wizards' Move #1

I named this post "Wizards' Move #1" because there has to be another move coming before the start of the season, if not before tomorrow's draft. I see the possibility for another trade soon for another front-court player with Stevenson, DMac, or James as the main piece. There's also a chance that the much improved Vladimir Veremeenko from Europe (PF, 2006 2nd round pick) is going to be signed this year to add more front-court depth.

Current Depth Chart

Starters (loosely projected):

PG - Arenas
SG - Stevenson
SF - Butler
PF - Jamison
C - Haywood

Second Unit (too many guards):

1. Miller (SF)
2. Foye (PG/SG)
3. Young (SG)
4. Blatche (PF)
5. DMac (SG, SF, or PF)
6. McGee (C)
7. Crittenton (PG)
8. Mike James (PG)

Anybody got any other thoughts? This is a good trade in my estimation, but there is still work to be done. Lots of average players on that second unit. I'm hoping to see a tight rotation of 8 players playing 30 minutes each next year (Flip mentioned this in the past).

Simple Concept:

> 40 minutes of court time each game per player (Gil, CB3, AJ especially) = Injuries

***Acknowledging this trend will likely result in less injuries next year.